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It was safe to say Josh Beckett's struggles the other day were due to an injury, and now he's saying he has felt numbess and tingling in his arm:

Beckett said he slept awkwardly on the arm before Sunday's start against the Blue Jays, a start in which he gave up 8 runs in 2 2/3 innings.

"Just something I've been dealing with," Beckett said. "At some point in time, just got to figure out what the [heck] it is. Obviously it's not what I want, but I think at this juncture it's something that needs to happen. Obviously there's something going on."

Beckett said the numbness remains in his pinky and ring finger, and has been there since Sunday, though it has improved over time. There is "not very much pain at all with it," he said. "You've got to figure out what the [heck] it is. You don't want it to get so bad to where it ends up being a really bad problem."

It appears that this isn't exactly a new problem for Beckett. While he said he has never dealt with it "on that level," including on a day he's been on the mound, it is something that he and the team have monitored over time.

Beckett's start has been pushed back from Saturday to Tuesday. The starters in Toronto will be Paul Byrd, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka with Beckett's start being pushed back.

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Thank you, Jon Lester and Jason Bay.

The Red Sox got back in the win column with a 6-3 victory over Orioles. Lester went seven innings and allowed just one run. Bay provided the offense by hitting two home runs, knocking in four RBIs and finishing 3 for 5 with two runs.

All is right in Red Sox Nation.

Even though it was against the Orioles, this was a very important win because it was our ace matched up against thier ace. The Sox have struggled against some of the better pitchers in baseball, so touching up Jeremy Guthrie is nice.

Lester gave up four hits and one run, an Aubrey Huff dinger. Manny Delcarmen allowed two runs in relief, while Jonathan Papelbon finished the last 1.1 innings to earn the save.

A sweep of the O's would be very nice. After letting the Jays walk all over us, the Sox need to make up some ground on the Rays. I'm actually at the point where I think I'm starting to get nervous. Some may already be at that point and some may never get there, but I think I'm there. The Sox need to play their best ball because it doesn't look like the Rays are going to fall off the map now.

Speaking of those Rays, today they use six pitchers and still come out with a 6-4 win. That's not dominant baseball right there. Will that come back to bite them in the butt? Let's hope so.

Tomorrow it's Daisuke Matsuzaka facing off against Daniel Cabrera. Can you say, 'Walkapalooza'?

Last night's game confirmed something I've said repeatedly. The Rangers have the best offense in the league, and the only team that hits better than they do is whoever they're pitching against.

Charlie Zink's debut was a disappointment. In 4.1 innings, he allowed 11 hits, 8 runs (all earned), and got only 1 strikeout against the team ranked second in K's. The only positive was Zink's 1 walk allowed. The pen sucked last night, but Zink set them up for it.

With Zink sent down after last night's stinker, the Sox moved Paul Byrd onto the roster, and gave him Friday's start against Toronto. This bumps Clay Buchholz from his scheduled start; he could take Wakefield's next turn in the rotation, on Sunday. Or he could be demoted to Pawtucket, and replaced by another AAA starter (and ultimately Wakefield). Despite his struggles, I'm hoping he remains in Boston.

Clay Buchholz could go down to triple-A and work on his pitching, but the value of that work seems doubtful. In 43.2 innings at Pawtucket this year, he has a 2.47 ERA, 43 Ks, only 3 HR and 17 BBs. He was sent down to work on his fastball, and through June he basically dominated the International League. Then he came back to the majors and pitched as badly as he had before.

My theory is that Buchholz succeeded in AAA without substantial improvement in his fastball and mechanics, because of poor overall hitting at that level. Many top hitting prospects are either on their major league teams, or working their way up through A or AA ball; AAA has plenty of career minor leaguers who can cover a position in the event of a major-league injury, but don't hit that well (e.g. Jonathan Van Every). That said, I didn't watch Buchholz pitch, so if anyone noticed his mechanics / control were substantially better during his month in AAA, let me know.

Buchholz's major league statistics tell an interesting tale. In some ways, Buchholz is pitching well. His line drive percentage is down from last year (29% in 07, 22% now), and his groundball rate is up (38.5% in 07, 47.3% now). His groundball to flyball ratio is also up (1.18 in 07, 1.55 now). Fewer line drives and more groundballs should reflect positively in overall stats. However, Buchholz has suffered because of substantially worse defense behind him. His Defense Efficiency Ratio is very bad at .642; last year it was .745. He also has a ridiculously high BABIP, at .358, which means many more of his balls are dropping in or being misplayed for hits. Buchholz has been terribly unlucky, both in general and defensively.

Buchholz is pitching poorly, however. No obscure stats can blot out the .376 OBP or 11 HR he's allowed in a mere 72.2 innings. His fielding independent percentage, a metric that focuses on what the pitcher controls, is 4.70, comparable to a 4.70 ERA. That's not good, but it is acceptable for a fifth starter.

If Buchholz's BABIP and defense improve even slightly, he'd be a league average pitcher. And if Farrell can help him cut down on the walks and homers, he'll be better than average. As Zink's appearance suggests, Pawtucket's rotation doesn't offer much hope for better production. The best of the bunch is probably David Pauley, who had a good start against the Yanks in 06 (6 IP, 2 runs). None of them are really promising, aside from Michael Bowden, who was just promoted and still needs to work on his secondary pitches.

I think the best choice for Clay's future development is to remain in the majors, working closely with John Farrell. He is a potential ace, and he's struggling, much like Jon Lester did. Lester didn't learn how to dominate major league batters at Pawtucket, and neither will Buchholz.

What do you think? Should Clay stay or go? Do you think he'll ever live up to his #1 pitching prospect rankings? And if so, will it be as a member of the Red Sox? Comment below and in the poll.

FIP is a metric by which pitchers are judged based on how they pitch. Luck, defense, etc. are intended to be eliminated by the use of this metric. It takes into account how well a pitcher strikes out hitters, controls walks, etc. It is roughly analogous to ERA, though a better measure of how a pitcher is throwing.

Sox Starters, Descending order by FIP:

Justin Masterson: 5.16 FIP v. 3.61 ERA

Tim Wakefield: 4.85 FIP v. 3.77 ERA

Bartolo Colon: 4.45 FIP v. 4.09 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 4.18 FIP v. 5.94 ERA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.18 FIP v. 3.04 ERA

Jon Lester: 3.57 FIP v. 3.14 ERA

Josh Beckett: 3.39 FIP v. 4.15 ERA

Comments:

Beckett and Buch have been unlucky. Beckett's 4.7 K/BB should give him a leg up on the competition, but he's been allowing more HRs than he should be (1.09/9 IP) and his BABIP has been a bit higher (.324) than average (approx. .290-.300). I feel like even Buch's FIP is a bit low. He's been unlucky, but he also hasn't been great. He has, however, been better in terms of K/BB (1.91) than lucky Daisuke (1.47). This reinforced my feeling that Daisuke has actually been the harder one to watch on the mound. His % of runners LOB is about 10 higher than the league-average, and that walk rate (5.4 per 9) is downright scary. That particular house of cards could come crashing down any day now.

Masterson has also been very lucky. He's got similar problems to Daisuke, in that his LOB% is probably unsustainable. His HR rate is high, his BABIP is low (.232), and his K/BB makes me want to vomit (1.62). However, he's definitely still young, figuring it out, and his ability to get GBs has helped him out of jams. (I put him in the starter column, as the great majority of his innings are in that role)

Few pitchers match their FIP exactly, and Colon and Lester are good examples of pitchers who have been close enough to their FIP to not be deemed flukes in some way. Lester's FIP indicates that he's been a high-quality starter this season. And what have our eyes and traditional statistics told us? The same thing. Colon has looked like a league-average starter who's was reliable for us when pitching. His FIP indicates the same thing. By just the starters, Colon's K/BB is second-best among his teammates. Lester is actually 9th among 43 qualified AL starters in FIP.

Wakefield is the breaker of all rules, and to try to pin him down based on his FIP is probably pretty foolish. There are no comparisons for him, really. I'd say he might be a bit lucky, but to assume that in reality he's a 4.85 run pitcher seems wrong as well.

Sox Relievers, Descending order by FIP:

Mike Timlin: 4.41 FIP v. 5.34 ERA

Javy Lopez: 4.25 FIP v. 2.51 ERA

Hideki Okajima: 4.01 FIP v. 2.66 ERA

David Aardsma: 3.44 FIP v. 2.75 ERA

Manny Delcarmen: 3.34 FIP v. 4.05 ERA

Jonathan Papelbon: 1.94 FIP v. 2.05 ERA

Comments:

Paps is awesome. His FIP is actually better than last season, despite seeming more human than ever in the last two years. His K/BB is a strong 8.14, and he's done a better job keeping the ball in the park. MDC, similarly, has improved on his FIP from last season (3.85) by also doing a better job keeping the ball in the park and improving his walk rate. 

Oki? Well, the feeling that he would be something between last season and his horrendous start to this one is probably correct. I don't know that he's ever going to get back to how good he was last season; he was phenomenal. His BABIP (.294) is about right/average, and it has produced a somewhat predictable 1.34 WHIP. Surprisingly enough, his LOB% is higher than last season, which should shock most who've seen him let inherited runner after inherited runner score in tough situations this year.

Javy kind of sucks. I don't know how else to put it. 1.33 K/BB and a probably unsustainable LOB% of his own. Timlin, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sucked as much as we might believe. To my own eyes, he's certainly pitched a lot better as of late, and could be more trustworthy than some (Lopez) in situations. Aardsma is kind of the enigma. His stunning ability to walk a lot of people made me believe his FIP would be higher than it is, but I suppose his second-best on the Sox K-rate (9.38/9 IP) has helped with that. He's also been very stingy with the longball, best on the Sox staff in that department. We'll see how it goes, but he's certainly worth keeping around for next season.

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Hells yes.

Summary:

Lester sacked up, and it was on a night in which the Yankees rang up 9 hits against him: Sure a few were kind of squibbers so to speak, but mostly it was good hitters taking good swings at some of 'his' pitches. He still limited the Yanks to 2 runs in 7 innings of work while striking out 8. Also, he's grown 3 inches according to Orel Hershiser. 

There's not a day that's gone by since it happened that I haven't been pleased that Sidney Ponson is on the MFY roster. The above pictured David Ortiz hit his first HR since returning from the DL, and also added a long sac fly to RF. He looked himself, for sure.

Manuel did what Manuel does. Hitting and hitting and hitting. His near-HR that Melky Cabrera tracked down deep in the triangle looked awesome off the bat, and as often noted, would've been out in basically all parks but ours. If tonight didn't remind you that we would be a lower-performing team minus Manny Ramirez, then I don't know what will.

Good to see MDC back on the hill tonight. I was concerned his injury was going to turn out more serious than first reported. 

Player of the Game:

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F' you, for thinking I wouldn't sack up and stop the skid tonight.

Comment of the Game:

If Terry wants Cora fresh, leave him on ice. -ecoli

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A long long time ago... months ago...happier times.

Manuel Aristedes "Being" Ramirez.

Players in the American League with a higher OPS (.932) this season than Manny:

Milton Bradley

Alex Rodriguez

JD Drew

This is a downish year for Manny. Despite this, he is 4th among qualified AL players in OBP + SLG. 4th among qualified AL players in OBP. Tied for 7th in HRs. We're not just going to pick up a guy like that off of the Blake Street. And speaking of that guy, as he's been mentioned as a trade target: I'm not going to look at just his career road OPS (which is truly mediocre). His road OPS THIS season is .866. His home OPS this season is 6 billion. I'd prefer more balance, myself.

Teixeira? Highest full-season OPS: 2007 between Atlanta and Texas. .963. His best season in OPS is only 31 points higher than Manuel's down year this year. 

Look. Is Manny going to bounce-back to pre-2007 levels? Not sure. But let's get one thing clear. There's not a Manny replacement out there not named Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols. Getting Teixeira now and shipping Manny out assumes that Youks would be capable and happy playing LF. Maybe he would. I really don't know. The point is, it's assuming a lot of things. 

This is not to say we can't trade Manny. This is not to say that some of the possible scenarios wouldn't be acceptable. But when you're thinking about us losing/trading/giving up on Manny, you have to keep all of this in mind. 

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It's been a crappy weekend to be a Sox fan. First, we lose 1-0 to Joba and the mysterious head-hunting game vs. Youks. Then we lose 10-3 to Andy Pettitte with Craig Hansen trying his best Joba imitation vs. Alex Rodriguez. Your lone bright spot? That man smiling and pointing at you right above this paragraph. Chad Finn put it best a few days ago. Who can't be extremely happy this weekend, even for a few minutes between being close-gamed/called to death and being pummeled today, with #34 back at the plate for the Sox? 

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Once again, Jon Lester, we look to you to wear the big pants. Don't let us down.

via d.yimg.com -- Jason Varitek hit a two-run bomb in the fifth inning.

Thank the Baseball Gods, the Red Sox won a game.

And it looked kind of easy for them. Jon Lester was a stud on the mound, pitching 7.1 innings and allowing just eight hits, no runs, no walks and striking out six. That's a damn good line. With that start he solidified himself as the best starter the Sox have had this season.

Jonathan Papelbon saw some work and shut down the M's. He came in the 8th with one out on the board and threw two pitches to get out of the inning. He went unscatched in the ninth to earn his 29th save.

Offensively, let's thank Jason Varitek who hit a bomb to put the Sox up 2-0 in the fourth. He finished with two hits and a walk. Slump over? No. 9 hitter Jed Lowrie proved his worth as well with a single in the eighth inning that put the Sox up 4-0.

It's nice to see some production at the bottom of the lineup. The bottom four hitters (Kevin Youkilis, Coco Crisp, Varitek and Lowrie) reached base six times via walk, six times via hit and had all four RBIs.

A win is a win, but a sweep against one of the worst teams in baseball is a necessity.

COMMENT OF THE GAME:
"Ellsbury has a high MSI lately ... MSI = Momentum Sucking Index" - Drugs Delaney

You know. I was all set last night to rant for about 4,568,342 of title. I convinced myself not to, sure I'd come off as ridiculously overly negative, and would turn all of you off from this site forever. Then something happened:

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Well. Not that specifically, but you get the point. A big positive for us tonight, in the person of Jon Lester. Definitely helped temper the...temper I felt towards/about this team last night.

• Lester was excellent. We can't be too down on ourselves with him and Becks in the rotation. This is what he's capable of, ladies and gentlemen, and this performance nor his no-hitter were flukes. He's not going to do this every time out, but I feel awesome about Jon Lester taking the mound these days.
• Coco Crisp is hot. .880 OPS in June. Is it going to keep up? I don't know, but he's definitely helping the Sox and himself out if he still wants to be traded. 
• Our starting catcher can no longer be up when the game is on the line in the 8th or 9th inning. Just can't happen. Sean Casey can hit, and Alex Cora can kind of run if it comes to that. It's silly to continue showing faith in him. And the hit-and-run with Lowell on-base ahead of him has worked a grand total of zero times out of three million tries in the last two days. At this point, I'm ready for Lowell to be a little bit insubordinate when the sign is given. 
• DP is on pace for 47 2Bs, 17 HR, and 17 SB. I'm dubious about the HR and SBs, but he's looking well past the point of rebounding after a slow start this season. Drew's been keeping it going as well. 
• I've seen a lot of people jump right off the MDC bandwagon lately in light of his very recent struggles. Let's hold judgement for now. I still prefer him to everyone but Paps in the late innings of games, though the idea of giving Aardsma a shot in some of those situations doesn't bother me too much. OTOH, I don't know what Hansen needs, but what he and we don't need is for him to be having an even worse run recently than MDC has. Where is '07 Oki when you need him? And WTF did Lopez do to piss Tito off. I'm not saying 8th inning, but he certainly is as good an option as most everyone around lately for the 7th and for situations with Inherited Runners. Sure he's liable to walk guys every so often, but he gets GBs from guys on both sides of the plate.
• Daisuke. Dice-BB. Whatever you want to call him. I'm tired of it. The Sox need to look into something for him if he can't put together a few straight starts of 6 IP minimum (with all of those starts, of course, coming in under 110 pitches and with less than 4 walks). Trying not to aim too high here.
• Finally, Mike Timlin is back. That's pretty much all I have to say about that.

Who's safe? Who's not?

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Daisuke threw a rehab start for Pawtucket, and pitched well. 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners and 5 Ks. He has proclaimed himself ready to rejoin the rotation, and as pointed out by Buster Olney last night on BBTN, is on the same schedule now as Bartolo Colon, who left the game last night with back spasms.

Believe it or not, Colon's injury might actually be a little lucky for us. No? I'll be pompous for the moment and explain.

We have three starters who are not going to be displaced in the rotation anytime soon. Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Tim Wakefield are not going anywhere. Amidst all of that, tonight's starter, Justin Masterson, has pitched well, with a 1.06 WHIP and a 7.84 K/9. Would like to see him lower his walks, because the hit-rate of ~5.2 H/9 isn't sustainable. Nonetheless, he's given the Sox no reason (other than having options left) to kick him out of the rotation. Are there any OTMers, for example, who would like to see him sent back to AAA later this week? 

However, the smart money was that Daisuke would come back and pitch in Masterson's slot, despite pitching on Colon's schedule. After all, while he hasn't been Cy-quality, Colon has pitched well enough for us, and certainly deserved another start or two to prove he wasn't a semi long-term option. Now, however, the back spasms. I anticipate this means that we might DL Colon for Daisuke in the next several days, which would allow us to keep Colon, as otherwise he might've had to be DFA'd. (I don't believe Colon has options left, and he's not really a good bullpen candidate at this point in his career)

In this case, we can now continue to keep Colon around as insurance, and when either ineffectiveness or growing concerns about inning totals start to make us more cautious about Masterson, Colon could be ready to step back into the rotation. And if Daisuke pitches a couple starts and doesn't really look ready, we can make an adjustment that way as well.

So, the next couple weeks: Becks, Lester, Wakefield, Daisuke, and Masterson

Then, potentially, Becks, Lester, Wakefield, Daisuke, and Colon again. Either way, depth is looking good for the moment, and we've got some pieces to play around with. Not to mention a couple guys on the farm that go by the names of Buchholz and Bowden. 

via www.fangraphs.com

Summary:

.993 OPS. David Ortiz J.D. Drew. He's been a monster, and while I acknowledge the point that he might be seeing better pitches ahead of Manny than he was ahead of 'Tek and others, anyone watching can tell he's locked in, and wouldn't be missing the one good pitch he'd get in the 6th or 7th spot the way he is right now. He absolutely cannot be dropped lower than 5th when Papi comes back. I know one of the two (Manuel or Papi) is very comfortable with the way they bat in the order, but I started to think tonight that Drew should be the #2, with Manny 3rd and Papi 4th and Lowell or Youks to follow. Then you don't have the three LHHs in a row, but still get Drew to the plate the secondmost times in a game. Who would have thought a year ago that we'd be working this hard to find more PAs for Drew.

None of that was a summary at all. Anyway. Jon Lester continued to improve as a pitcher, pounding the zone tonight. And the way you know he's convincing Tito/Theo? He had a bit of a rough stretch in the 6th (perhaps set up, as suggested in the thread, by too much down time in-between innings) and was still sent out for the 7th and finished the game strong. MDC came on in the 8th and looked...money, while Timlin finished the game with a solidly-pitched 1-2-3 9th. 

On offense? Sox had it goin. The first run scored on a anybody but Julio Lugo Julio Lugo RBI 1B. Then the Sox started the 5th inning with an Ells single, a Dustin "One-Pitch" Pedroia flyout, then a beautiful JD Drew 2B to CF. That set up an IBB to "Being" and finally a Mike Lowell over the monster grand slam. Youks and Drew would add a 2-run HR apiece to make the final score 9-2. (the 2 O's runs scoring in the aforementioned rough 6th for Jon Lester. Shout-out to Aubrey Huff and Oscar WHO? Salazar for having good offensive games for Baltimore)

Player of the Game:

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Ladies and gentlemen? Jon Lester.

Comment of the Game:

"Ells is on, c'mon Pedroia, take a pitch, I dare you, just take a pitch... -sydneysox