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Daisuke Matszuaka had another five-walk game, but it was good enough to lead his team to a 7-2 win over Baltimore Tuesday.

Kevin Youkilis led the Sox with three hits and three RBI. Jason Varitek hit his second home run in as many games to finish with two RBI. Jacoby Ellsbury was effective in the leadoff spot going 2 for 6 with two runs and two stolen bases (40 on the season).

Matsuzaka went five innings and allowed two runs with five walks on top -- a typical Dice-K night. The O's left 22 on base. It's really remarkable what he's doing, but something is due to break. Either he's going to start giving up runs or he's going to stop issuing walks. One or the other. He can't go the rest of the season like this; it's just not possible.

Youk continues to look great. At this moment, it doesn't look like he's going to get tired and break down like last season.

I really like Justin Masterson in a relief role. I really do believe that he's going to prove to be one of the best options out of the 'pen down the stretch. If the Sox make the playoffs, there's no doubt in my mind he's going to get some time in some tough situations and show what he can do. If Manny Delcarmen can pitch like he's capable of, Masterson, Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon could be what this bullpen needs. I understand Manny and Oki are the culprites this season, but it could all change come crunch time.

Despite the walks, a good one. Let's sweep.

via d.yimg.com

Thank you, Jon Lester and Jason Bay.

The Red Sox got back in the win column with a 6-3 victory over Orioles. Lester went seven innings and allowed just one run. Bay provided the offense by hitting two home runs, knocking in four RBIs and finishing 3 for 5 with two runs.

All is right in Red Sox Nation.

Even though it was against the Orioles, this was a very important win because it was our ace matched up against thier ace. The Sox have struggled against some of the better pitchers in baseball, so touching up Jeremy Guthrie is nice.

Lester gave up four hits and one run, an Aubrey Huff dinger. Manny Delcarmen allowed two runs in relief, while Jonathan Papelbon finished the last 1.1 innings to earn the save.

A sweep of the O's would be very nice. After letting the Jays walk all over us, the Sox need to make up some ground on the Rays. I'm actually at the point where I think I'm starting to get nervous. Some may already be at that point and some may never get there, but I think I'm there. The Sox need to play their best ball because it doesn't look like the Rays are going to fall off the map now.

Speaking of those Rays, today they use six pitchers and still come out with a 6-4 win. That's not dominant baseball right there. Will that come back to bite them in the butt? Let's hope so.

Tomorrow it's Daisuke Matsuzaka facing off against Daniel Cabrera. Can you say, 'Walkapalooza'?

FIP is a metric by which pitchers are judged based on how they pitch. Luck, defense, etc. are intended to be eliminated by the use of this metric. It takes into account how well a pitcher strikes out hitters, controls walks, etc. It is roughly analogous to ERA, though a better measure of how a pitcher is throwing.

Sox Starters, Descending order by FIP:

Justin Masterson: 5.16 FIP v. 3.61 ERA

Tim Wakefield: 4.85 FIP v. 3.77 ERA

Bartolo Colon: 4.45 FIP v. 4.09 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 4.18 FIP v. 5.94 ERA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.18 FIP v. 3.04 ERA

Jon Lester: 3.57 FIP v. 3.14 ERA

Josh Beckett: 3.39 FIP v. 4.15 ERA

Comments:

Beckett and Buch have been unlucky. Beckett's 4.7 K/BB should give him a leg up on the competition, but he's been allowing more HRs than he should be (1.09/9 IP) and his BABIP has been a bit higher (.324) than average (approx. .290-.300). I feel like even Buch's FIP is a bit low. He's been unlucky, but he also hasn't been great. He has, however, been better in terms of K/BB (1.91) than lucky Daisuke (1.47). This reinforced my feeling that Daisuke has actually been the harder one to watch on the mound. His % of runners LOB is about 10 higher than the league-average, and that walk rate (5.4 per 9) is downright scary. That particular house of cards could come crashing down any day now.

Masterson has also been very lucky. He's got similar problems to Daisuke, in that his LOB% is probably unsustainable. His HR rate is high, his BABIP is low (.232), and his K/BB makes me want to vomit (1.62). However, he's definitely still young, figuring it out, and his ability to get GBs has helped him out of jams. (I put him in the starter column, as the great majority of his innings are in that role)

Few pitchers match their FIP exactly, and Colon and Lester are good examples of pitchers who have been close enough to their FIP to not be deemed flukes in some way. Lester's FIP indicates that he's been a high-quality starter this season. And what have our eyes and traditional statistics told us? The same thing. Colon has looked like a league-average starter who's was reliable for us when pitching. His FIP indicates the same thing. By just the starters, Colon's K/BB is second-best among his teammates. Lester is actually 9th among 43 qualified AL starters in FIP.

Wakefield is the breaker of all rules, and to try to pin him down based on his FIP is probably pretty foolish. There are no comparisons for him, really. I'd say he might be a bit lucky, but to assume that in reality he's a 4.85 run pitcher seems wrong as well.

Sox Relievers, Descending order by FIP:

Mike Timlin: 4.41 FIP v. 5.34 ERA

Javy Lopez: 4.25 FIP v. 2.51 ERA

Hideki Okajima: 4.01 FIP v. 2.66 ERA

David Aardsma: 3.44 FIP v. 2.75 ERA

Manny Delcarmen: 3.34 FIP v. 4.05 ERA

Jonathan Papelbon: 1.94 FIP v. 2.05 ERA

Comments:

Paps is awesome. His FIP is actually better than last season, despite seeming more human than ever in the last two years. His K/BB is a strong 8.14, and he's done a better job keeping the ball in the park. MDC, similarly, has improved on his FIP from last season (3.85) by also doing a better job keeping the ball in the park and improving his walk rate. 

Oki? Well, the feeling that he would be something between last season and his horrendous start to this one is probably correct. I don't know that he's ever going to get back to how good he was last season; he was phenomenal. His BABIP (.294) is about right/average, and it has produced a somewhat predictable 1.34 WHIP. Surprisingly enough, his LOB% is higher than last season, which should shock most who've seen him let inherited runner after inherited runner score in tough situations this year.

Javy kind of sucks. I don't know how else to put it. 1.33 K/BB and a probably unsustainable LOB% of his own. Timlin, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sucked as much as we might believe. To my own eyes, he's certainly pitched a lot better as of late, and could be more trustworthy than some (Lopez) in situations. Aardsma is kind of the enigma. His stunning ability to walk a lot of people made me believe his FIP would be higher than it is, but I suppose his second-best on the Sox K-rate (9.38/9 IP) has helped with that. He's also been very stingy with the longball, best on the Sox staff in that department. We'll see how it goes, but he's certainly worth keeping around for next season.

Jason Bay slides home on one of Coco Crisp's sacrifice flies. (via d.yimg.com)

Hey, what do you know? This actually looks like a ballcub.

The Sox completed a three-game sweep of the A's with an easy 5-2 victory Sunday afternoon. Daisuke Matsuzaka earned his 12th win of the season after working six innings and allowed just two runs, walked two and struck out eight. His pitch count was high, but a 37 minute rain delay also didn't help Matsuzaka heading back out for the eighth inning.

The Sox took the lead for good in the first inning. Dustin Pedroia doubled and Kevin Youkilis singled right after to put the Sox up, 1-0. Jed Lowrie tripled in the fourth to score Mike Lowell and Jason Bay. Coco Crisp hit two sacrifice flies in the ballgame to score the Sox's final two runs. Bay went 2 for 4 with two runs and David Ortiz walked twice and stole second. I repeat: stole second base.

Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen and Jonathan Papelbon combined for three innings, one hit, two walks, two strikeouts and no runs. Papelbon earned his 31st save of the season and dropped his ERA to 2.05.

Like I said yesterday, Lowrie is looking better and better each day. If he continues to play like this (7 RBI in the last three games), I'm not sure how he could sit on the bench when Julio Lugo gets back. Would the Sox be afraid to designate Lugo for assignment? I think it's a possibility. They might be able to trade him at some point in August.

I think he likes Boston. (via d.yimg.com)

I love this team.

Just watching Jason Bay and Jed Lowrie jumping around after winning the game made me so happy. This is a team that wants to play baseball and wants to win. That was obvious in the later innings. But after Bay crossed the plate for the winning run, did you see what he did? He got excited. He is finally playing meaningful baseball for a contender. This guy deserves it and he's going to lead us down the stretch into the playoffs.

Bay hit the huge triple in the bottom of the 12th with two outs to give the Sox a shot. He finished 1 for 3 with both runs, two walks and a hit by pitch. He was on base four times -- yes, four. And did you see him run when he hit the triple off the wall? Yup, that was our starting left fielder running around the basepaths and running hard. What a sight for sore eyes.

I can only imagine how Bay felt in his first at bat when he received a standing ovation. He had to step out of the box twice because it was so much. It was another class-act performance by the Fenway Faithful and I'm sure it's not going to stop there.

JD Drew finished 2 for 3 with three walks. Stud? Mhmm. The guy knows where the zone is and he's hitting the balls that find that zone, laying off when they aren't. With Drew and Bay batting back-to-back, we're in a good spot.

Where are the JedHeads out there? Of course Lowrie was huge, knocking in Bay twice. Once early on for the sac fly and then in the 12th. Nothing special, just a little bouncer that went over Alan Embree's head and made Bobby Crosby double-clutch.

The more I watch Lowrie play, the more I'm convinced he is the Red Sox's shortstop of the future. He's becoming more comfortable at the plate and his defense looks solid. What a great double play combination of him and Dustin Pedroia. If our defense is Lowrie, Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell for years to come, we're all set.

But most importantly, we won a game. Yes, it's the A's and they aren't a great club but a win is a win. We need to string them together to have a chance. The Sox should build off this; there's a lot of momentum here. The Sox need to hold on to it and put some more wins on the board if we want to compete down the stretch.

The downsides? Yeah, there are some. Lowell doesn't look good at the plate and, perhaps, David Ortiz looked even worse tonight. That's not good for our No. 3 and 4 hitters. But hey, we had our No. 5 and 6 guys pick them right up. They can't do that every night, but once in awhile it's OK.

Two great defensive plays of the night: Alex Cora's diving stop up the middle, turn and fired to get the out at first base. Then early in the game, with a runner on third base, Bay made a sliding catch to prevent the run. As Lou Merloni just said on NESN, "Manny wouldn't have made that play."

Tim Wakefield was very solid tonight. He threw too many pitches, but he was effective. Hideki Okajima pitched well, but left one a little too much over the plate for Jack Cust to knock over the wall. All other relievers (yes, even Mike Timlin!) had perfect innings (Jonathan Papelbon had two).

Did I mention how much I love this team?

via d.yimg.com
Dice-K was strong on the hill for the Sox

Two done, one more to go. A Sox sweep of the Mariners is crucial.

The Sox picked up win No. 2 over the M's, 4-2, on Tuesday. Daisuke Matsuzaka was solid on the mound, going 7.1 innings, allowing five hits, two runs, three walks and struck out six. He threw 99 pitches -- not too bad for over seven innings of work.

JD Drew led the offense with his 18th home run of the season and a sac fly that plated another. He finished 2 for 3 with two RBIs, a run and a walk. Mike Lowell hit a double to deep left that scored Dustin Pedroia in the fifth. Jed Lowrie picked up the Sox's final run in the fifth with a sac fly of his own.

Hideki Okajima did his job. Enough said there. Jonathan Papelbon earned his 30th save of the season by retiring the M's 1-2-3 in the 9th inning.

COMMENT OF THE GAME:
"We can always rely on Dice-K to make every game a pain in the ass when we least expect to." - MerryGoByeBye (this, of course, came towards the end of Dice-K's start)

OMG. WTF can I say here people?

Atrocious, plus a side of excruciatingly painful to watch.

Signs it's going to get better? None. And the only acquisition I'm really interested in, Damaso Marte, hasn't pitched in the AL in awhile, and could easily be cost-prohibitive. Out of 8 full-type seasons, his WHIP has only been above 1.266 twice, and he has struck out 483 hitters in 453 1/3 career innings. It's all but assured that we need to get better on an internal basis.

Masterson. I'm cautiously optimistic, if only because his sinker should make him reasonably effective in those IH situations that we've to this point only been able to use Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Mike Timlin, Javy Lopez, David Aardsma absolutely no one in. I'm concerned about his control and HR issues, however, which basically means he'll fit right in in our bullpen.

Delcarmen. All right buddy, I'm losing faith here. I've been one of your biggest defenders, I think, as others have clearly lost all thought of using him in close situations. He's simply been easier to hit this season. Last year he threw 44 innings and walked 17 while striking out 41. This season he's at 40 2/3 with 16 BB and 40 Ks. Hits? 28 last year, 37 this year.

Oki. Same issue, really, and this could've been predicted for both. Control in terms of walk rate and strikeout rate have not changed too much. 

Timlin. Am I serious? His last 5 1/3 of ridiculouslysmallsamplesize: 4 H, 1 BB, 3 Ks. I've given up on trying to figure Timlin out, but his ability to not be afraid to f'n throw strikes means I'm ready for him to try higher-leverage work again, if only because I'm ready for hits rather than walks/gift-wrapped hitters' counts to beat us in close games.

Paps. Pass. Good job buddy, even if you haven't been as crazy-dominant as the past two seasons.

Javy. Just not sure here. He had a good stretch to begin the season, but has come WAY back to Earth. Predictable, yes, and he probably doesn't need to see the kind of work he got earlier anymore. Surprisingly enough, he's looking more like a lefty specialist, with a .741 OPS against LHHs and an .814 OPS against RHHs. That .741 isn't that great, I suppose, but it means maybe we should only throw him against weak LHHs from now on. Doesn't seem that useful.

Chris Smith. 0.97 WHIP in Pawtucket this season. 45 Ks in 48 1/3. He might be a quad-A guy, certainly, but we'll never know until he gets an extended look. Seems like a guy (8 BB this season) who would make the other team beat him rather than beating himself. Refreshing?

Daniel Bard. Well. 82 Ks in 62 innings and a 0.94 WHIP. Next season, certainly, even if he doesn't make it up to help us this season.

Aardsma. Injured, and we'll see how that velocity is when he comes back. Walks too many. Walks too many. Walks too many. 

EDIT:

Conclusions. Manny D and Oki just have to become more deceptive and get into less hitters' counts. Timlin might need to see more late-inning work, if only because he'll throw strikes. Lopez would be good if he got on another run, but as of now should be mop-up and vs. LHH's only. Aardsma shows promise, less IP than MDC with great strikeout rates over his career. Some control (we could say this about a lot of people) and he'll be a rock. Hopefully Masterson can defy his BB and HR issues as a starter during his conversion to the pen. 

via d.yimg.com

• Congrats to JD Drew for winning the All-Star MVP award. I was worried he wouldn't win it because of the 'B' on his hat, but he definitely deserved it. He deserves the spotlight and it couldn't have happened to a better guy. And to think, he was voted in by players -- makes it even sweeter.
• I'm not quite sure what to think about this whole Jonathan Papelbon mess. I haven't really known what to think about him since he started spouting off about his contract a short while ago. He made some comments that obviously were going to piss some Yankee fans off, and he received that back at the All-Star parade. I understand why he is complaining (and no one should ever feel unsafe) but he had a hand in the whole situation. And, unfortunately, if the roles were reversed, it'd happen in Boston, too.
• Outside of Drew, there wasn't anything notable from any other Sox hitters. Dustin Pedroia walked -- that's really all to note. No worries though. Drew did enough to carry the rest's slack. Papelbon went an inning, allowed a hit and struck out two.
• What's with Wade Boggs wearing a Yankees hat? C'mon. Is that necessary? He's in the Hall wearing a Sox hat but now that he's in New York he's wearing the interlocking NY? I don't really like that, but maybe we should be a little understanding in this case.
• There's a lot to remember about last night's game, but one thing that might go unnoticed but shouldn't is the job Terry Francona did. Some will question him removing Francisco Rodriguez so early in the game, but that move was done to ensure Mariano Rivera would see time in the game. I did hear some praise for Francona and it just makes me think: in 10, 15, 20, 25 years, how is the baseball world going to look at Francona? I think he's going to go down as one of the best managers in baseball and probably the nicest guy in the history of baseball. I've never heard a bad word about Francona and I think that's how we'll all remember him. It's a pleasure to have him coaching our team.
• When will the All-Star game be back in Fenway? I can't wait...

via d.yimg.com

Can I admit I'm not exactly Paps up there when thinking about how the bullpen has been used lately? Our players love playing for Tito and some of that has to do with the confidence he shows in them in certain situations. 

Paps, for example, belongs to save situations and that's not going to change anytime soon, and it shouldn't. MDC is the RHP called upon most often in the 7th/8th in close games. Again. No problem. 

The issue, here, is some heralded RPs who need to switch roles with their, perhaps, less-heralded counterparts. 

Craig Hansen has been up-and-down since called up, looking better than MDC at times, and looking worse than Timlin at others. Yet Tito has shown confidence in Hansen, putting him in situations where the score is close and the Sox are deep into the game. The fact of the matter is, despite how good he was today (and he was, awesome). He needs some of what Joe Morgan might refer to as consistency before he's trusted as the third option out of the pen.

Hideki Okajima. I wish I had some confidence in him. But I just don't. I have to wonder why he was in the game late yesterday, rather than David Aardsma, but of course remembered that we used/wasted Aardsma in back-to-back losses. I don't know what Oki needs, but he needs to put in some impressive work in garbage time to earn our confidence to pitch him late in games. Until then.

Javy Lopez. I wouldn't be saying this last year. But, for now, Javy needs to be getting those high-leverage situations when Tito/Farrell want a lefty. Javy's been effective this year, for whatever reason, and we should keep riding that while it lasts. The fact that his total numbers indicate that he's making hitters, in general, look like Jason Varitek (.703 OPS against, v. .717 OPS) is as encouraging about Lopez as it is discouraging about our captain.

David Aardsma. Aardsma has earned a shot at some more important situations, especially given his performance this weekend, striking out the side in two straight games. A 1.30 WHIP and 36 Ks in 34+? Not lights-out, but certainly better than many of our other options.

In, short, get J-Lo and Aardsma out of these blowout games and near-losses, and let's start using a couple of our best relievers as they should be used.

Oh. And Mike Timlin needs to be moved from the 15-day DL to the foreverplease RL. Yes. I'm in the camp that believes he's pretty much entirely cooked. I know he proved us all wrong last season, but it just seems different.

I suppose some trades could be made to help our cause. Names that intrigue me:

Jon Rauch: 33 Ks and 35 baserunners in 36 2/3. Toiling away for the last-place Nationals.

Alan Embree: Looks like he's gotten his mojo back in Oakland. 31 Ks and a 1.24 WHIP in 30 2/3.

Damaso Marte: He's been excellent, in Pittsburgh,with 39 Ks in 36 1/3 and a 1.07 WHIP. Last I've seen is that Pittsburgh might hold on to him the rest of the year, but I don't know how much sense that makes for them.

Who'd be a fair return for these cats? I dunno. Throw down some ideas in the comments.

via www.fangraphs.com

Summary:

If you had told me before this game that we were set up for a pitcher's duel, I might've asked you if you needed to be in rehab. The second ML start for a young pitcher who hadn't pitched above AA? Gil Meche, who had only one game score above 57 entering last night's action?

And yet, this is all about why we watch and follow the sport. The unpredictable happens. Justin Masterson gets his first ML-win. Coco Crisp comes up with the biggest hit of the night for the Sox. Javier Lopez is the best-performing non-Papelbon reliever in the Sox bullpen. "Being" ends the night wearing the golden sombrero. Jonathan Papelbon in 1.1 IP, leads the team in WPA. The predictable happens. Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen continue to struggle.

Despite Paps' deserved WPA,  it was Masterson's night. He now has game scores of 64 and 65 in his ML-career. 9 groundball outs and 5 strikeouts. A WHIP of 0.973. He was good, and we haven't seen the last of him this season.

Co-Players of the Game:

via d.yimg.com

Wow. Joba's got nothing on Paps.

Comment of the Game:

10 minutes away and look things are the same. Lugo popping out. -sydneysox