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Daisuke Matszuaka had another five-walk game, but it was good enough to lead his team to a 7-2 win over Baltimore Tuesday.

Kevin Youkilis led the Sox with three hits and three RBI. Jason Varitek hit his second home run in as many games to finish with two RBI. Jacoby Ellsbury was effective in the leadoff spot going 2 for 6 with two runs and two stolen bases (40 on the season).

Matsuzaka went five innings and allowed two runs with five walks on top -- a typical Dice-K night. The O's left 22 on base. It's really remarkable what he's doing, but something is due to break. Either he's going to start giving up runs or he's going to stop issuing walks. One or the other. He can't go the rest of the season like this; it's just not possible.

Youk continues to look great. At this moment, it doesn't look like he's going to get tired and break down like last season.

I really like Justin Masterson in a relief role. I really do believe that he's going to prove to be one of the best options out of the 'pen down the stretch. If the Sox make the playoffs, there's no doubt in my mind he's going to get some time in some tough situations and show what he can do. If Manny Delcarmen can pitch like he's capable of, Masterson, Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon could be what this bullpen needs. I understand Manny and Oki are the culprites this season, but it could all change come crunch time.

Despite the walks, a good one. Let's sweep.

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It was safe to say Josh Beckett's struggles the other day were due to an injury, and now he's saying he has felt numbess and tingling in his arm:

Beckett said he slept awkwardly on the arm before Sunday's start against the Blue Jays, a start in which he gave up 8 runs in 2 2/3 innings.

"Just something I've been dealing with," Beckett said. "At some point in time, just got to figure out what the [heck] it is. Obviously it's not what I want, but I think at this juncture it's something that needs to happen. Obviously there's something going on."

Beckett said the numbness remains in his pinky and ring finger, and has been there since Sunday, though it has improved over time. There is "not very much pain at all with it," he said. "You've got to figure out what the [heck] it is. You don't want it to get so bad to where it ends up being a really bad problem."

It appears that this isn't exactly a new problem for Beckett. While he said he has never dealt with it "on that level," including on a day he's been on the mound, it is something that he and the team have monitored over time.

Beckett's start has been pushed back from Saturday to Tuesday. The starters in Toronto will be Paul Byrd, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka with Beckett's start being pushed back.

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Thank you, Jon Lester and Jason Bay.

The Red Sox got back in the win column with a 6-3 victory over Orioles. Lester went seven innings and allowed just one run. Bay provided the offense by hitting two home runs, knocking in four RBIs and finishing 3 for 5 with two runs.

All is right in Red Sox Nation.

Even though it was against the Orioles, this was a very important win because it was our ace matched up against thier ace. The Sox have struggled against some of the better pitchers in baseball, so touching up Jeremy Guthrie is nice.

Lester gave up four hits and one run, an Aubrey Huff dinger. Manny Delcarmen allowed two runs in relief, while Jonathan Papelbon finished the last 1.1 innings to earn the save.

A sweep of the O's would be very nice. After letting the Jays walk all over us, the Sox need to make up some ground on the Rays. I'm actually at the point where I think I'm starting to get nervous. Some may already be at that point and some may never get there, but I think I'm there. The Sox need to play their best ball because it doesn't look like the Rays are going to fall off the map now.

Speaking of those Rays, today they use six pitchers and still come out with a 6-4 win. That's not dominant baseball right there. Will that come back to bite them in the butt? Let's hope so.

Tomorrow it's Daisuke Matsuzaka facing off against Daniel Cabrera. Can you say, 'Walkapalooza'?

Dice-K: Enigmatic and Unhittable via farm1.static.flickr.com

With his win last night over the Texas Rangers, Daisuke Matsuzaka is now 14-2. Like many stats, wins don't tell you the full story, but they do matter to some people. In particular, the Baseball Writers Association of America consider wins an important qualification for the Cy Young award (along with Ks, innings, and ERA).

By my count, Daisuke has 8 potential starts left before the season ends. Matsuzaka might be the alpha and the omega of the 2008 season, starting both the first and last games. If he wins at least 6 of those 8, he'll have 20 victories, which will put him on the BWAA's radar.

The Cy Young is a much more meritorious award than the Golden Gloves, but it is still a meaningless award. Nevertheless, I like to see Boston players win such honorifics and have their achievements recognized. Matsuzaka's main competitor in this race is Cliff Lee, the Cleveland lefty having a career season; he leads the league in wins at 16-2, and ERA at 2.45. Other potentials include Mike Mussina (15-7, 3.30 ERA) and Joe Saunders (14-5, 3.07).

Daisuke missed starts to injury, so his innings and strikeout totals are low. However, he has some good peripherals: a 7.62 K / 9 innings ratio (0.5 higher than Lee's), and a 0.59 HR / 9 IP ratio. Walks are a real problem: Daisuke's 5.33 BB / 9 IP ratio is pretty bad. Incredibly, he's been able to minimize the damage with men on base.

By one measure, Daisuke's season is just like the last one. His fielding independent percentage is 4.24, not far off from 07's 4.35, though his ERA is much better. Line drive and groundball percentages are in line with last season, though he's suppressing homers much more effectively (25 in 07, 8 in 08).

So should Daisuke be in the Cy Young discussions? Are you pleased with his season? Is his current performance sustainable, or will he start allowing more hits with RISP? Speak your mind below in the comments, and answer the poll.

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It doesn't even feel fair to play the Rangers.

OK, so maybe it's not the Rangers' fault. Maybe the Red Sox are just starting to click, which is definitely something we've been looking for for the past few months. I really hope that is the reason and it's not just the Rangers. Their pitching sucks, but lets give some credit to the Sox offense, right?

Daisuke Matszuaka had a good day, but it may be a little misleading. Seven innings, six hits, no runs, five strikeouts but five walks? The walks are way too much. Dice-K needs to drop those walks and I'll claim this a great start for him.

The offense, once again, exploded in the second inning for nine runs. Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie each had three hits and David Ortiz had three RBIs thanks to his 2nd inning home run.

With the Rays hurting, this is when the Sox need to make their move. Paul Byrd starts tomorrow; if he can pitch well the Sox might be looking good for this big stretch run.

FIP is a metric by which pitchers are judged based on how they pitch. Luck, defense, etc. are intended to be eliminated by the use of this metric. It takes into account how well a pitcher strikes out hitters, controls walks, etc. It is roughly analogous to ERA, though a better measure of how a pitcher is throwing.

Sox Starters, Descending order by FIP:

Justin Masterson: 5.16 FIP v. 3.61 ERA

Tim Wakefield: 4.85 FIP v. 3.77 ERA

Bartolo Colon: 4.45 FIP v. 4.09 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 4.18 FIP v. 5.94 ERA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.18 FIP v. 3.04 ERA

Jon Lester: 3.57 FIP v. 3.14 ERA

Josh Beckett: 3.39 FIP v. 4.15 ERA

Comments:

Beckett and Buch have been unlucky. Beckett's 4.7 K/BB should give him a leg up on the competition, but he's been allowing more HRs than he should be (1.09/9 IP) and his BABIP has been a bit higher (.324) than average (approx. .290-.300). I feel like even Buch's FIP is a bit low. He's been unlucky, but he also hasn't been great. He has, however, been better in terms of K/BB (1.91) than lucky Daisuke (1.47). This reinforced my feeling that Daisuke has actually been the harder one to watch on the mound. His % of runners LOB is about 10 higher than the league-average, and that walk rate (5.4 per 9) is downright scary. That particular house of cards could come crashing down any day now.

Masterson has also been very lucky. He's got similar problems to Daisuke, in that his LOB% is probably unsustainable. His HR rate is high, his BABIP is low (.232), and his K/BB makes me want to vomit (1.62). However, he's definitely still young, figuring it out, and his ability to get GBs has helped him out of jams. (I put him in the starter column, as the great majority of his innings are in that role)

Few pitchers match their FIP exactly, and Colon and Lester are good examples of pitchers who have been close enough to their FIP to not be deemed flukes in some way. Lester's FIP indicates that he's been a high-quality starter this season. And what have our eyes and traditional statistics told us? The same thing. Colon has looked like a league-average starter who's was reliable for us when pitching. His FIP indicates the same thing. By just the starters, Colon's K/BB is second-best among his teammates. Lester is actually 9th among 43 qualified AL starters in FIP.

Wakefield is the breaker of all rules, and to try to pin him down based on his FIP is probably pretty foolish. There are no comparisons for him, really. I'd say he might be a bit lucky, but to assume that in reality he's a 4.85 run pitcher seems wrong as well.

Sox Relievers, Descending order by FIP:

Mike Timlin: 4.41 FIP v. 5.34 ERA

Javy Lopez: 4.25 FIP v. 2.51 ERA

Hideki Okajima: 4.01 FIP v. 2.66 ERA

David Aardsma: 3.44 FIP v. 2.75 ERA

Manny Delcarmen: 3.34 FIP v. 4.05 ERA

Jonathan Papelbon: 1.94 FIP v. 2.05 ERA

Comments:

Paps is awesome. His FIP is actually better than last season, despite seeming more human than ever in the last two years. His K/BB is a strong 8.14, and he's done a better job keeping the ball in the park. MDC, similarly, has improved on his FIP from last season (3.85) by also doing a better job keeping the ball in the park and improving his walk rate. 

Oki? Well, the feeling that he would be something between last season and his horrendous start to this one is probably correct. I don't know that he's ever going to get back to how good he was last season; he was phenomenal. His BABIP (.294) is about right/average, and it has produced a somewhat predictable 1.34 WHIP. Surprisingly enough, his LOB% is higher than last season, which should shock most who've seen him let inherited runner after inherited runner score in tough situations this year.

Javy kind of sucks. I don't know how else to put it. 1.33 K/BB and a probably unsustainable LOB% of his own. Timlin, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sucked as much as we might believe. To my own eyes, he's certainly pitched a lot better as of late, and could be more trustworthy than some (Lopez) in situations. Aardsma is kind of the enigma. His stunning ability to walk a lot of people made me believe his FIP would be higher than it is, but I suppose his second-best on the Sox K-rate (9.38/9 IP) has helped with that. He's also been very stingy with the longball, best on the Sox staff in that department. We'll see how it goes, but he's certainly worth keeping around for next season.

Jason Bay slides home on one of Coco Crisp's sacrifice flies. (via d.yimg.com)

Hey, what do you know? This actually looks like a ballcub.

The Sox completed a three-game sweep of the A's with an easy 5-2 victory Sunday afternoon. Daisuke Matsuzaka earned his 12th win of the season after working six innings and allowed just two runs, walked two and struck out eight. His pitch count was high, but a 37 minute rain delay also didn't help Matsuzaka heading back out for the eighth inning.

The Sox took the lead for good in the first inning. Dustin Pedroia doubled and Kevin Youkilis singled right after to put the Sox up, 1-0. Jed Lowrie tripled in the fourth to score Mike Lowell and Jason Bay. Coco Crisp hit two sacrifice flies in the ballgame to score the Sox's final two runs. Bay went 2 for 4 with two runs and David Ortiz walked twice and stole second. I repeat: stole second base.

Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen and Jonathan Papelbon combined for three innings, one hit, two walks, two strikeouts and no runs. Papelbon earned his 31st save of the season and dropped his ERA to 2.05.

Like I said yesterday, Lowrie is looking better and better each day. If he continues to play like this (7 RBI in the last three games), I'm not sure how he could sit on the bench when Julio Lugo gets back. Would the Sox be afraid to designate Lugo for assignment? I think it's a possibility. They might be able to trade him at some point in August.

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Dice-K was strong on the hill for the Sox

Two done, one more to go. A Sox sweep of the Mariners is crucial.

The Sox picked up win No. 2 over the M's, 4-2, on Tuesday. Daisuke Matsuzaka was solid on the mound, going 7.1 innings, allowing five hits, two runs, three walks and struck out six. He threw 99 pitches -- not too bad for over seven innings of work.

JD Drew led the offense with his 18th home run of the season and a sac fly that plated another. He finished 2 for 3 with two RBIs, a run and a walk. Mike Lowell hit a double to deep left that scored Dustin Pedroia in the fifth. Jed Lowrie picked up the Sox's final run in the fifth with a sac fly of his own.

Hideki Okajima did his job. Enough said there. Jonathan Papelbon earned his 30th save of the season by retiring the M's 1-2-3 in the 9th inning.

COMMENT OF THE GAME:
"We can always rely on Dice-K to make every game a pain in the ass when we least expect to." - MerryGoByeBye (this, of course, came towards the end of Dice-K's start)

Who's safe? Who's not?

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Daisuke threw a rehab start for Pawtucket, and pitched well. 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners and 5 Ks. He has proclaimed himself ready to rejoin the rotation, and as pointed out by Buster Olney last night on BBTN, is on the same schedule now as Bartolo Colon, who left the game last night with back spasms.

Believe it or not, Colon's injury might actually be a little lucky for us. No? I'll be pompous for the moment and explain.

We have three starters who are not going to be displaced in the rotation anytime soon. Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Tim Wakefield are not going anywhere. Amidst all of that, tonight's starter, Justin Masterson, has pitched well, with a 1.06 WHIP and a 7.84 K/9. Would like to see him lower his walks, because the hit-rate of ~5.2 H/9 isn't sustainable. Nonetheless, he's given the Sox no reason (other than having options left) to kick him out of the rotation. Are there any OTMers, for example, who would like to see him sent back to AAA later this week? 

However, the smart money was that Daisuke would come back and pitch in Masterson's slot, despite pitching on Colon's schedule. After all, while he hasn't been Cy-quality, Colon has pitched well enough for us, and certainly deserved another start or two to prove he wasn't a semi long-term option. Now, however, the back spasms. I anticipate this means that we might DL Colon for Daisuke in the next several days, which would allow us to keep Colon, as otherwise he might've had to be DFA'd. (I don't believe Colon has options left, and he's not really a good bullpen candidate at this point in his career)

In this case, we can now continue to keep Colon around as insurance, and when either ineffectiveness or growing concerns about inning totals start to make us more cautious about Masterson, Colon could be ready to step back into the rotation. And if Daisuke pitches a couple starts and doesn't really look ready, we can make an adjustment that way as well.

So, the next couple weeks: Becks, Lester, Wakefield, Daisuke, and Masterson

Then, potentially, Becks, Lester, Wakefield, Daisuke, and Colon again. Either way, depth is looking good for the moment, and we've got some pieces to play around with. Not to mention a couple guys on the farm that go by the names of Buchholz and Bowden. 

Walks.  Walks. Walks. Walks. Walks. Walks. Walks. Walks. Walks.

via www.fangraphs.com

Walks. Walks...

Summary:

So, to be fair to Dice-BB, the strike zone last night was...tight. However, the umpire wasn't biased or anything; it was up to Dice-BB and 'Tek to make the adjustments. They didn't. I told a friend of mine, before the game, that this game could have been a statement game for either starter. Neither Bonderman or Matsuzaka delivered. 

Thankfully, Mike Lowell did. 3/5, 2B, HR, and almost missed another 2B or HR due to the glove of probably anyone but Gary Sheffield Gary Sheffield. A good game, too, from Papi, who went 2/4 with his own HR and a BB. Or, a walk. A walk. A lot of f'n walks.

Craig Hansen. The one hitter where I felt he got squeezed, in the 7th, was of course Gary Sheffield. Ball 3 was particularly suspicious, even if ball 4 was all Hansen. Nonetheless, he looked strong, and it was his own error bizarre infield single that was scored ridiculously ruled a hit, and so no doubt was a hit, even if the hitter would've been out by a mile if Hansen had fielded the ball properly. I'm so f'n confused by the scoring on that particular play. I suppose it doesn't matter in the grand scheme, but holy crap some homer-scoring there. Oh well. F.

Player of the Game:

Have to, again, disagree with WPA. See the guy on the left for our PotG.

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Comment of the Game:

holy shnikees, I didn't even look at how dice k was because I was looking at hansen...8 walks? is this a joke? -pedroiastroika