Last night's game confirmed something I've said repeatedly. The Rangers have the best offense in the league, and the only team that hits better than they do is whoever they're pitching against.

Charlie Zink's debut was a disappointment. In 4.1 innings, he allowed 11 hits, 8 runs (all earned), and got only 1 strikeout against the team ranked second in K's. The only positive was Zink's 1 walk allowed. The pen sucked last night, but Zink set them up for it.

With Zink sent down after last night's stinker, the Sox moved Paul Byrd onto the roster, and gave him Friday's start against Toronto. This bumps Clay Buchholz from his scheduled start; he could take Wakefield's next turn in the rotation, on Sunday. Or he could be demoted to Pawtucket, and replaced by another AAA starter (and ultimately Wakefield). Despite his struggles, I'm hoping he remains in Boston.

Clay Buchholz could go down to triple-A and work on his pitching, but the value of that work seems doubtful. In 43.2 innings at Pawtucket this year, he has a 2.47 ERA, 43 Ks, only 3 HR and 17 BBs. He was sent down to work on his fastball, and through June he basically dominated the International League. Then he came back to the majors and pitched as badly as he had before.

My theory is that Buchholz succeeded in AAA without substantial improvement in his fastball and mechanics, because of poor overall hitting at that level. Many top hitting prospects are either on their major league teams, or working their way up through A or AA ball; AAA has plenty of career minor leaguers who can cover a position in the event of a major-league injury, but don't hit that well (e.g. Jonathan Van Every). That said, I didn't watch Buchholz pitch, so if anyone noticed his mechanics / control were substantially better during his month in AAA, let me know.

Buchholz's major league statistics tell an interesting tale. In some ways, Buchholz is pitching well. His line drive percentage is down from last year (29% in 07, 22% now), and his groundball rate is up (38.5% in 07, 47.3% now). His groundball to flyball ratio is also up (1.18 in 07, 1.55 now). Fewer line drives and more groundballs should reflect positively in overall stats. However, Buchholz has suffered because of substantially worse defense behind him. His Defense Efficiency Ratio is very bad at .642; last year it was .745. He also has a ridiculously high BABIP, at .358, which means many more of his balls are dropping in or being misplayed for hits. Buchholz has been terribly unlucky, both in general and defensively.

Buchholz is pitching poorly, however. No obscure stats can blot out the .376 OBP or 11 HR he's allowed in a mere 72.2 innings. His fielding independent percentage, a metric that focuses on what the pitcher controls, is 4.70, comparable to a 4.70 ERA. That's not good, but it is acceptable for a fifth starter.

If Buchholz's BABIP and defense improve even slightly, he'd be a league average pitcher. And if Farrell can help him cut down on the walks and homers, he'll be better than average. As Zink's appearance suggests, Pawtucket's rotation doesn't offer much hope for better production. The best of the bunch is probably David Pauley, who had a good start against the Yanks in 06 (6 IP, 2 runs). None of them are really promising, aside from Michael Bowden, who was just promoted and still needs to work on his secondary pitches.

I think the best choice for Clay's future development is to remain in the majors, working closely with John Farrell. He is a potential ace, and he's struggling, much like Jon Lester did. Lester didn't learn how to dominate major league batters at Pawtucket, and neither will Buchholz.

What do you think? Should Clay stay or go? Do you think he'll ever live up to his #1 pitching prospect rankings? And if so, will it be as a member of the Red Sox? Comment below and in the poll.

Over the past four years, teams named Sox have won three World Series titles. This week, the two Sox teams meet for an epic four-game battle with important playoff implications.

The Chicago White Sox were not supposed to compete this year. Baseball Prospectus pegged them third in the division, projecting a 78-84 season (.481 Win %) behind the Indians and Tigers. Instead, they stand atop the division (63-50, .558), the Indians are dead last, and the Tigers are trying to claw their way up from third place.

In some ways this could be expected. The Indians did nothing to improve their team, which was lucky in 2007 (5 games above their Pythagorean record). In addition, last year they ran up the innings of both Sabathia and Carmona, adversely affecting their performances this year. Injuries and trades were all it took to knock Cleveland out completely. Meanwhile, the Tigers subtracted by addition, trading Jair Jurrjens for the black hole known as Edgar Renteria, and moving their other top prospects for Dontrelle Willis (who is injured and sucks) and Miguel Cabrera (who's having a good season). Meanwhile, the White Sox got Scott Linebrink, Nick Swisher, Orlando Cabrera, breakout slugger Carlos Quentin, and most recently Ken Griffey Jr. Combined with greatly improved pitching, Chicago's AL team is a force to be reckoned with.

The White Sox have solid pitching (6th in AL team ERA) and a good offense (4th in AL runs scored), making for a much more balanced team than their World Series squad. Young hurlers John Danks and Gavin Floyd, both with sub-4 ERAs, make for a very strong 1-2 punch, and we'll also see Mark Buehrle and Jose Contreras in this series.

One positive for this series is that the White Sox pitching has been much worse of late. In July, their starters posted an ERA of 5.06; so far in August they've put up a cumulative ERA of 7.52. Floyd and Buehrle in particular are both coming off bad starts, and Contreras is coming off the DL. Chicago's relievers have also been knocked around: as their 5.70 and 4.38 ERAs in July and August attest. Setup man Scott Linebrink is on the DL, so the Sox may be facing Chicago at an opportune time.

Matchups are evenly lopsided. On paper, Boston has an edge in the first two games and seems at a disadvantage in the last two.

Friday: Lester (3.14) vs. Buehrle (4.07)
Saturday: Matsuzaka (3.04) vs. Contreras (4.60)
Sunday: Buchholz (5.94) vs. Floyd (3.66)
Monday: Beckett (4.08) vs. Danks (3.21)

Based on matchups alone, this battle of the laundry looks like a wash. However, I think the Sox can take three of four, particularly if Beckett builds on his success last game, or if Buch outpitches Floyd. Maybe Boston pulls the wool over Chicago's eyes and sweeps the whole series. In any case, I hope we sock it to 'em!

FIP is a metric by which pitchers are judged based on how they pitch. Luck, defense, etc. are intended to be eliminated by the use of this metric. It takes into account how well a pitcher strikes out hitters, controls walks, etc. It is roughly analogous to ERA, though a better measure of how a pitcher is throwing.

Sox Starters, Descending order by FIP:

Justin Masterson: 5.16 FIP v. 3.61 ERA

Tim Wakefield: 4.85 FIP v. 3.77 ERA

Bartolo Colon: 4.45 FIP v. 4.09 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 4.18 FIP v. 5.94 ERA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.18 FIP v. 3.04 ERA

Jon Lester: 3.57 FIP v. 3.14 ERA

Josh Beckett: 3.39 FIP v. 4.15 ERA

Comments:

Beckett and Buch have been unlucky. Beckett's 4.7 K/BB should give him a leg up on the competition, but he's been allowing more HRs than he should be (1.09/9 IP) and his BABIP has been a bit higher (.324) than average (approx. .290-.300). I feel like even Buch's FIP is a bit low. He's been unlucky, but he also hasn't been great. He has, however, been better in terms of K/BB (1.91) than lucky Daisuke (1.47). This reinforced my feeling that Daisuke has actually been the harder one to watch on the mound. His % of runners LOB is about 10 higher than the league-average, and that walk rate (5.4 per 9) is downright scary. That particular house of cards could come crashing down any day now.

Masterson has also been very lucky. He's got similar problems to Daisuke, in that his LOB% is probably unsustainable. His HR rate is high, his BABIP is low (.232), and his K/BB makes me want to vomit (1.62). However, he's definitely still young, figuring it out, and his ability to get GBs has helped him out of jams. (I put him in the starter column, as the great majority of his innings are in that role)

Few pitchers match their FIP exactly, and Colon and Lester are good examples of pitchers who have been close enough to their FIP to not be deemed flukes in some way. Lester's FIP indicates that he's been a high-quality starter this season. And what have our eyes and traditional statistics told us? The same thing. Colon has looked like a league-average starter who's was reliable for us when pitching. His FIP indicates the same thing. By just the starters, Colon's K/BB is second-best among his teammates. Lester is actually 9th among 43 qualified AL starters in FIP.

Wakefield is the breaker of all rules, and to try to pin him down based on his FIP is probably pretty foolish. There are no comparisons for him, really. I'd say he might be a bit lucky, but to assume that in reality he's a 4.85 run pitcher seems wrong as well.

Sox Relievers, Descending order by FIP:

Mike Timlin: 4.41 FIP v. 5.34 ERA

Javy Lopez: 4.25 FIP v. 2.51 ERA

Hideki Okajima: 4.01 FIP v. 2.66 ERA

David Aardsma: 3.44 FIP v. 2.75 ERA

Manny Delcarmen: 3.34 FIP v. 4.05 ERA

Jonathan Papelbon: 1.94 FIP v. 2.05 ERA

Comments:

Paps is awesome. His FIP is actually better than last season, despite seeming more human than ever in the last two years. His K/BB is a strong 8.14, and he's done a better job keeping the ball in the park. MDC, similarly, has improved on his FIP from last season (3.85) by also doing a better job keeping the ball in the park and improving his walk rate. 

Oki? Well, the feeling that he would be something between last season and his horrendous start to this one is probably correct. I don't know that he's ever going to get back to how good he was last season; he was phenomenal. His BABIP (.294) is about right/average, and it has produced a somewhat predictable 1.34 WHIP. Surprisingly enough, his LOB% is higher than last season, which should shock most who've seen him let inherited runner after inherited runner score in tough situations this year.

Javy kind of sucks. I don't know how else to put it. 1.33 K/BB and a probably unsustainable LOB% of his own. Timlin, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sucked as much as we might believe. To my own eyes, he's certainly pitched a lot better as of late, and could be more trustworthy than some (Lopez) in situations. Aardsma is kind of the enigma. His stunning ability to walk a lot of people made me believe his FIP would be higher than it is, but I suppose his second-best on the Sox K-rate (9.38/9 IP) has helped with that. He's also been very stingy with the longball, best on the Sox staff in that department. We'll see how it goes, but he's certainly worth keeping around for next season.

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• Lugo: We're going to miss him, believe it or not, and most of the time we won't know it when we do. He can still get to some balls that many SS in the ML don't, and that figures to be hard to notice on a game-to-game basis. I forsee Alex Cora being played far too often, as many have already pointed out. Cannot imagine a situation in which Lugo comes back and rides the bench, unless Lowrie hits about .300/.400/.500 in his absence.
  
• Loved Youks' day, but how about "Being" with an excellent opposite field shot following Drew's over the monster shot? Very excellent and reassuring.
• The team needs to be ashamed that they haven't won more of Wake's starts  lately, in just this fashion. Superb again, Wake.
• I think Buch will be okay. Don't ask me to base that assumption upon anything specific.
• A less vague timetable for Papi's return? I'm excited. A week before the deadline? Interesting.
• Thanks for saving your stress-free inning this week for a blowout, Craig.
• Any guesses as to combined # of walks in Daisuke v. Daniel Cabrera this afternoon?
• Also. Trade proposals with the Nationals for Jon Rauch? 1.01 WHIP, 42 Ks in 46 1/3. Nationals could use long-term help at basically every position, it seems, but 3B (Zimmerman), C (Flores) and possibly dangerous malcontent (Dukes).

via multimedia.heraldinteractive.com

Aren't these two guys we'd love to see back in action soon?

Clay Buchholz, btw, threw 5 shutout innings last night for Pawtucket. He needed only 60 pitches to do so, striking out 3 and allowing 5 baserunners. His three starts previous (6 2/3 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K; 5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 6 K; 6 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K) were also very good, and the Sox have clearly been trying to keep him from being overworked, and not so curiously, on the same schedule as Justin Masterson. Between Pawtucket and Boston, he's only at 81 innings at the halfway point. He's in good shape to be able to last most of, if not the entire rest of the way. We can also assume that he's been putting in a lot of work on his fastball command and his trust in the pitch. 

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Reliever?

Who hasn't enjoyed watching Justin Masterson? He's been giving it his all, has shown the ability to shrug off bad pitches or innings, and has flashed some good stuff in the process. However, can I admit that I'm not thrilled at the idea of a pitcher who's given up 26 BBs in 48 IP headed to the bullpen? His command has not been what we were led to believe, and while his hit-rate has been good, we can't expect that to continue as it has. The alarming propensity for giving up HRs isn't conducive to the role either. I've seen the calls for sending him to the pen, and I simply don't agree. If Buchholz comes up, Masterson should go down. And maybe that move should happen before Justin's next turn in the rotation. 

Sure, it means that Chris Smith without doubt goes down so that Mike Timlin can come back up and team with Oki to challenge our collective sanity. But hey. That was probably going to happen anyway. And maybe, just maybe, we need to get Masterson ready to be a relief pitcher for a few weeks, to determine whether a move for someone such as Brian Fuentes would make sense.

Do you folks want to make a trade for a reliever? Do we need to do so? Just where has 2007 Oki gone? Also. I have to apologize, as I went on a tirade in the comments the other night about Okajima just as much if not moreso than anyone else. The issue was, truly, the offense and perhaps to a lesser degree Tito. 

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After earning his fourth win of the season last night over the Orioles, Bartolo Colon improved his numbers to the following:

Not bad for a "washed up" former Cy Young Award winner, ey?

With his success right off the bat since joining the team from the disabled list, is Colon the best off-season pickup in all of Major League Baseball so far this season?

There are a lot of teams that would love to have a line like that from their fourth starter (at best). Three of those teams are in the AL East.

The wins are probably the offense's doing; it helps having the powerhouse of a lineup the Sox have. But 22 strikeouts and seven walks in 29 innings isn't too shabby from a guy the Sox stole off the scrap heap.

Considering Colon's paycheck, I think he's a damn good pickup. Colon has made $1.25 million already this year for just showing up in the big leagues. He'll get $7 million if he can make 30 starts or more. Will he do that? It's possible, but it's slim at this point. But if he does continue to pitch like this, 30 starts will be doable.

Has he essentially demoted Clay Buchholz? Probably, but I say let's ride this train while we can. It won't do any harm to Buchholz if he stays in Pawtucket much longer.

Bartolo Colon -- comeback player of the year?

First...

via www.fangraphs.com

Summary:

Two straight bad starts for Buchholz. Squeezed or not, a pitcher's primary weapon should be a well-located fastball. Buch hasn't had one for awhile, and the idea that he should go down to AAA to harness it/find one isn't one I'm against at this point. If Colon really is dialing it up to/near 97, then it's time to see if he can get ML hitters out. If not in this trip through the rotation, then next. The only thing that might be able to keep Buch at the ML-level is bigger struggles from Jon Lester than Buchholz himself has had lately. 

Livan Hernandez was his usual self tonight, the typical "keep it close" pitcher. He allowed Being's 498th bomb, a two-run shot, an RBI 1B from Papi just before the HR, and nothing beyond that. Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain were effective in finishing off the Sox over the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. 

The Sox pen, however, was somehow just as effective. Javy came in in relief of Buch, got 5 outs and handed the job over to Craig Hansen, who definitely reinforced the decision to DFA Tavarez rather than demote him. 13 pitches, 8 strikes, 2 GBs and a K. It's one inning, but he looked at least close to ready to take over for the struggling MDC in the 7th/8th inning mix. Timlin came on and got 3 outs and allowed a hit on a total of 7 pitches in the 8th. The Twins were clearly ready to go home for the day.

Player of the Game:

via d.yimg.com

It's the guy on the left, of course. 498. Look at how small he looks standing next to Papi. I have to interject, however, that it was Craig Hansen that gave me a lift about this game, and made me feel all right when it was all over.

The Shortstop Position:

Alex Cora
Excellent hands and good range
Is not a hitter. Pretty much at all. Runs well, though doesn't have the speed of a real base-stealing threat.

Jed Lowrie
Good hands, worst range of all three
Is a hitter. But we don't know how much rookie "jitters" could become a factor. Is...not ridiculously slow or anything.

Julio Lugo
Excellent range, poor no hands
Runs well, .OBP is almost .350. 

So who do we go with? Honestly, it's going to be Lugo and Cora until one of the two is injured, at least for this season. Lugo is not going to continue to have the kind of defensive issues all season long that have plagued him thusfar. And even if he does, Cora will just see more PT late in games to preserve leads, which Lugo's steadily rising OBP may help to create. I love Jed Lowrie, and under other circumstances I'd be yelling loudest to bring him back up and let him start. It's just not going to happen, not until one of the others gets hurt, or Lugo starts to be a complete black hole at the plate as well.

Tavarez is gone. How does the 'pen shake out?

Well. This was a bit unexpected, if only because most people were of the belief that Hansen would simply be sent down to create room for Sean Casey, and most people thinking DFA were probably attaching Timlin's name to it. Instead, Tavarez is out. I've seen comments around the web about "who is the Sox's long reliever now?" Am I the only one who thinks it's silly to just plan for your starters to be poor enough that within one turn of the rotation, you'll at least once need somebody to come in and throw several innings in a single game? Plus, Tavarez has only twice thrown more than 1 2/3 anyway. Aardsma already has 3 2 IP appearances under his belt, and would seem to be the logical choice (or J-Lo, depending upon situations/matchups) to get the game a little deeper. All the DFA really does is indirectly cause a change in the pecking order.

• Paps
• Oki
• Hansen !?!?!
• MDC !?!?!?
• Aardsma
• J-Lo
• Um.
• F.
• Anyone.
• Mike Timlin

5.01.08 v. Jays

Summary In a Nutshell:

A.J. Burnett. Tim Wakefield. We should've seen it coming.

Player of the Game:

Burnett. .487 WPA on his own. 

Comment of the Game:

Wow. When did we become the Twins? -MerryGoByeBye

5.02.08 v. Rays

Summary In a Nutshell:

Edwin Jackson = inconsistent. We should've seen it coming.

Player of the Game:

WPA says Buch (.221). I say: SwordBat-fighting midgets.

via d.yimg.com

Comment of the Game:

I'm on Gameday. How irate should I be about the throwing error by Lugo? -nuthinboutnuthin

5.03.08

Summary In a Nutshell:

James Shields. Josh Beckett. Revenge. We should have seen it coming.

Player of the Game:

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Comment of the Game:

On the plus side...I am forced to admit that Lugo is looking sharp at the plate. WTF? -nuthinboutnuthin

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There are probably a number of Red Sox who would argue that they didn't suck at baseball this weekend. If they're not one of the above two gentlemen, they can save it.

Summary: Vaguely Coherent Rant:

No. No. No. No. No. I'm sorry. 5 runs in 3 games. Five runs in three games. 5 runs in 3 games. No. No. No. No.

One not-awful start and two great starts wasted? F no.

Credit to the Rays' pitching? Well. Absolutely. And this is a different Rays' team. I'm aware that I'm the 8 billionth person to say that. If Buchholz was good on Saturday, Edwin Jackson was able to spread his runners and mistakes out a bit more. If Beckett was mostly dominating on Sunday, then James Shields was cool, calm, collected and efficient. I also respect the argument that Buchholz was let down not only by his "offense", but also his manager.

Shields was particularly impressive, and it is today's sort of efficiency that makes him a good bet for long-term success. Think about the Rays in a year or two: Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, and David Price. The first two are as proven as any good young starters in the game right now. The last two might only have to realize 1/2 - 2/3 of their potential to make the Rays' rotation a "difficult" one to face. Jose Lima could be the 5th starter, and it would make no difference.

Comment Goodness:

Somebody please tell Lugo he’s playing FOR the Red Sox, not against them. I’m getting sick of these 1-out, clutch double plays. - ecoli

well I'm here...and I don't give a crap about gridiron, professional basketball, or any other, lesser sport. All I care about are the Sox and Buchholz is just awesome. -sydneysox

on the upside, Buch and Beckett both lowered their ERAs...Of course, it would have been nice if every last batter didn't lower their average, along with it. - DJDP23

via www.fangraphs.com

Summary:

Gabbard v. Buchholz

In the battle of former semi-prospect and current uber-prospect, injury won. Gabbard was unable to go beyond the second inning due to injury, and Dustin Nippert took over. Fortunately for the Sox, and not so much for the Rangers. The offense was led by DP (2-5, 2B, 2 RsBI), Julio Lugo (not kidding, 4-4, 2B, SB, 2 R, RBI, BB) and Tacoby (2-4, 2 SB, BB, 2 R). Buch was shaky early, but settled down well, striking out 6 in 6 while allowing 7 baserunners. The Sox bullpen (Aardsma, J-Lo, and MDC) was not terrific.

All I do really well is not walk people Jered Weaver v. Beckett Pauley

You know what? I'm not upset that David Pauley was, shall we say, not good yesterday. Part of it is the great team win that resulted, but a bigger part is that it was a fairly unfair situation. He didn't know what he was doing, then was told at 2 he would not be pitching, then was told at 4 that he would be pitching. Thankfully, the 'pen was mostly able to keep the Rangers from scoring (with the only blip being a solo HR off the bat of Casey Kotchman). Kudos, in particular, to Paps who lit up the radar gun on the way to an 11-pitch, 2 K, 1-2-3 9th inning. Offensively, this game belonged to DP. There was much moaning in the thread about a baserunning gaffe, but he made up for it by going 4-5 on the day, with 3 2B and a SB!. Tacoby also helped "a little" by hitting his 2nd and 3rd HRs of the season, and getting the bunt single that led to him scoring the winning run. The Sox managed 16 hits in total, with 7 (4 2B, 3 HR) going for extra bases. 

Players of the Gamez:

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Clay's 6 shutout innings were just what we (and he) needed on Monday. DP just absolutely rocked the house on Tuesday, narrowly edging out Tacoby.

Commentz of the Gamez:

Don't worry. The Rangers just misplayed Lugo's double play ball for a single up the middle. - ecoli

It's not Lugo. It's an alien using his body. There, I said it. - merrygobyebye