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Daisuke Matszuaka had another five-walk game, but it was good enough to lead his team to a 7-2 win over Baltimore Tuesday.

Kevin Youkilis led the Sox with three hits and three RBI. Jason Varitek hit his second home run in as many games to finish with two RBI. Jacoby Ellsbury was effective in the leadoff spot going 2 for 6 with two runs and two stolen bases (40 on the season).

Matsuzaka went five innings and allowed two runs with five walks on top -- a typical Dice-K night. The O's left 22 on base. It's really remarkable what he's doing, but something is due to break. Either he's going to start giving up runs or he's going to stop issuing walks. One or the other. He can't go the rest of the season like this; it's just not possible.

Youk continues to look great. At this moment, it doesn't look like he's going to get tired and break down like last season.

I really like Justin Masterson in a relief role. I really do believe that he's going to prove to be one of the best options out of the 'pen down the stretch. If the Sox make the playoffs, there's no doubt in my mind he's going to get some time in some tough situations and show what he can do. If Manny Delcarmen can pitch like he's capable of, Masterson, Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon could be what this bullpen needs. I understand Manny and Oki are the culprites this season, but it could all change come crunch time.

Despite the walks, a good one. Let's sweep.

FIP is a metric by which pitchers are judged based on how they pitch. Luck, defense, etc. are intended to be eliminated by the use of this metric. It takes into account how well a pitcher strikes out hitters, controls walks, etc. It is roughly analogous to ERA, though a better measure of how a pitcher is throwing.

Sox Starters, Descending order by FIP:

Justin Masterson: 5.16 FIP v. 3.61 ERA

Tim Wakefield: 4.85 FIP v. 3.77 ERA

Bartolo Colon: 4.45 FIP v. 4.09 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 4.18 FIP v. 5.94 ERA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.18 FIP v. 3.04 ERA

Jon Lester: 3.57 FIP v. 3.14 ERA

Josh Beckett: 3.39 FIP v. 4.15 ERA

Comments:

Beckett and Buch have been unlucky. Beckett's 4.7 K/BB should give him a leg up on the competition, but he's been allowing more HRs than he should be (1.09/9 IP) and his BABIP has been a bit higher (.324) than average (approx. .290-.300). I feel like even Buch's FIP is a bit low. He's been unlucky, but he also hasn't been great. He has, however, been better in terms of K/BB (1.91) than lucky Daisuke (1.47). This reinforced my feeling that Daisuke has actually been the harder one to watch on the mound. His % of runners LOB is about 10 higher than the league-average, and that walk rate (5.4 per 9) is downright scary. That particular house of cards could come crashing down any day now.

Masterson has also been very lucky. He's got similar problems to Daisuke, in that his LOB% is probably unsustainable. His HR rate is high, his BABIP is low (.232), and his K/BB makes me want to vomit (1.62). However, he's definitely still young, figuring it out, and his ability to get GBs has helped him out of jams. (I put him in the starter column, as the great majority of his innings are in that role)

Few pitchers match their FIP exactly, and Colon and Lester are good examples of pitchers who have been close enough to their FIP to not be deemed flukes in some way. Lester's FIP indicates that he's been a high-quality starter this season. And what have our eyes and traditional statistics told us? The same thing. Colon has looked like a league-average starter who's was reliable for us when pitching. His FIP indicates the same thing. By just the starters, Colon's K/BB is second-best among his teammates. Lester is actually 9th among 43 qualified AL starters in FIP.

Wakefield is the breaker of all rules, and to try to pin him down based on his FIP is probably pretty foolish. There are no comparisons for him, really. I'd say he might be a bit lucky, but to assume that in reality he's a 4.85 run pitcher seems wrong as well.

Sox Relievers, Descending order by FIP:

Mike Timlin: 4.41 FIP v. 5.34 ERA

Javy Lopez: 4.25 FIP v. 2.51 ERA

Hideki Okajima: 4.01 FIP v. 2.66 ERA

David Aardsma: 3.44 FIP v. 2.75 ERA

Manny Delcarmen: 3.34 FIP v. 4.05 ERA

Jonathan Papelbon: 1.94 FIP v. 2.05 ERA

Comments:

Paps is awesome. His FIP is actually better than last season, despite seeming more human than ever in the last two years. His K/BB is a strong 8.14, and he's done a better job keeping the ball in the park. MDC, similarly, has improved on his FIP from last season (3.85) by also doing a better job keeping the ball in the park and improving his walk rate. 

Oki? Well, the feeling that he would be something between last season and his horrendous start to this one is probably correct. I don't know that he's ever going to get back to how good he was last season; he was phenomenal. His BABIP (.294) is about right/average, and it has produced a somewhat predictable 1.34 WHIP. Surprisingly enough, his LOB% is higher than last season, which should shock most who've seen him let inherited runner after inherited runner score in tough situations this year.

Javy kind of sucks. I don't know how else to put it. 1.33 K/BB and a probably unsustainable LOB% of his own. Timlin, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sucked as much as we might believe. To my own eyes, he's certainly pitched a lot better as of late, and could be more trustworthy than some (Lopez) in situations. Aardsma is kind of the enigma. His stunning ability to walk a lot of people made me believe his FIP would be higher than it is, but I suppose his second-best on the Sox K-rate (9.38/9 IP) has helped with that. He's also been very stingy with the longball, best on the Sox staff in that department. We'll see how it goes, but he's certainly worth keeping around for next season.

OMG. WTF can I say here people?

Atrocious, plus a side of excruciatingly painful to watch.

Signs it's going to get better? None. And the only acquisition I'm really interested in, Damaso Marte, hasn't pitched in the AL in awhile, and could easily be cost-prohibitive. Out of 8 full-type seasons, his WHIP has only been above 1.266 twice, and he has struck out 483 hitters in 453 1/3 career innings. It's all but assured that we need to get better on an internal basis.

Masterson. I'm cautiously optimistic, if only because his sinker should make him reasonably effective in those IH situations that we've to this point only been able to use Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Mike Timlin, Javy Lopez, David Aardsma absolutely no one in. I'm concerned about his control and HR issues, however, which basically means he'll fit right in in our bullpen.

Delcarmen. All right buddy, I'm losing faith here. I've been one of your biggest defenders, I think, as others have clearly lost all thought of using him in close situations. He's simply been easier to hit this season. Last year he threw 44 innings and walked 17 while striking out 41. This season he's at 40 2/3 with 16 BB and 40 Ks. Hits? 28 last year, 37 this year.

Oki. Same issue, really, and this could've been predicted for both. Control in terms of walk rate and strikeout rate have not changed too much. 

Timlin. Am I serious? His last 5 1/3 of ridiculouslysmallsamplesize: 4 H, 1 BB, 3 Ks. I've given up on trying to figure Timlin out, but his ability to not be afraid to f'n throw strikes means I'm ready for him to try higher-leverage work again, if only because I'm ready for hits rather than walks/gift-wrapped hitters' counts to beat us in close games.

Paps. Pass. Good job buddy, even if you haven't been as crazy-dominant as the past two seasons.

Javy. Just not sure here. He had a good stretch to begin the season, but has come WAY back to Earth. Predictable, yes, and he probably doesn't need to see the kind of work he got earlier anymore. Surprisingly enough, he's looking more like a lefty specialist, with a .741 OPS against LHHs and an .814 OPS against RHHs. That .741 isn't that great, I suppose, but it means maybe we should only throw him against weak LHHs from now on. Doesn't seem that useful.

Chris Smith. 0.97 WHIP in Pawtucket this season. 45 Ks in 48 1/3. He might be a quad-A guy, certainly, but we'll never know until he gets an extended look. Seems like a guy (8 BB this season) who would make the other team beat him rather than beating himself. Refreshing?

Daniel Bard. Well. 82 Ks in 62 innings and a 0.94 WHIP. Next season, certainly, even if he doesn't make it up to help us this season.

Aardsma. Injured, and we'll see how that velocity is when he comes back. Walks too many. Walks too many. Walks too many. 

EDIT:

Conclusions. Manny D and Oki just have to become more deceptive and get into less hitters' counts. Timlin might need to see more late-inning work, if only because he'll throw strikes. Lopez would be good if he got on another run, but as of now should be mop-up and vs. LHH's only. Aardsma shows promise, less IP than MDC with great strikeout rates over his career. Some control (we could say this about a lot of people) and he'll be a rock. Hopefully Masterson can defy his BB and HR issues as a starter during his conversion to the pen. 

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With CC Sabathia being dealt to Milwaukee and Rich Harden going to the Cubs, I feel like the Red Sox are out of the mix. When are the Sox going to make a big move? Do the Sox even need to make a big move?

This team has had its ups and downs this season, but I sort of feel like not a lot needs to be done at the trade deadline. The obvious concern at this point is a reliever. But, as we've seen in years past, there aren't many quality relievers out there for the taking. But with Justin Masterson heading to the pen, where do we sit? Personally I think, although it's been ugly out there, all the pitchers will level out and start pitching like we're used to seeing. And if that's true, we're in good shape.

Do we need a starter? I don't think so. We have our obvious starters, plus a lot of good arms in the minors like Michael Bowden, David Pauley, Charlie Zink (YES!) and if we really run into trouble we can put Masterson back into the rotation.

If we're focusing on the lineup, the only position we could really replace would be Julio Lugo at shortstop (we're not moving Captain, got it?). And you all know my thoughts on who should be Boston's shortstop.

I like our bench, too. Sean Casey is solid and I've been pleasantly surprised with Kevin Cash's work behind the plate and swinging the bat. He hasn't been great, but he could be a lot worse.

Part of me feels like this year's trade deadline will be a lot like last year's, minus that whole Eric Gagne fiasco (which, I still say, was a good trade at the time and, had he been good, we would have won the World Series ... oh, wait). Do we really need to make a splash? I don't think so, but we could.

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Aren't these two guys we'd love to see back in action soon?

Clay Buchholz, btw, threw 5 shutout innings last night for Pawtucket. He needed only 60 pitches to do so, striking out 3 and allowing 5 baserunners. His three starts previous (6 2/3 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K; 5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 6 K; 6 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K) were also very good, and the Sox have clearly been trying to keep him from being overworked, and not so curiously, on the same schedule as Justin Masterson. Between Pawtucket and Boston, he's only at 81 innings at the halfway point. He's in good shape to be able to last most of, if not the entire rest of the way. We can also assume that he's been putting in a lot of work on his fastball command and his trust in the pitch. 

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Reliever?

Who hasn't enjoyed watching Justin Masterson? He's been giving it his all, has shown the ability to shrug off bad pitches or innings, and has flashed some good stuff in the process. However, can I admit that I'm not thrilled at the idea of a pitcher who's given up 26 BBs in 48 IP headed to the bullpen? His command has not been what we were led to believe, and while his hit-rate has been good, we can't expect that to continue as it has. The alarming propensity for giving up HRs isn't conducive to the role either. I've seen the calls for sending him to the pen, and I simply don't agree. If Buchholz comes up, Masterson should go down. And maybe that move should happen before Justin's next turn in the rotation. 

Sure, it means that Chris Smith without doubt goes down so that Mike Timlin can come back up and team with Oki to challenge our collective sanity. But hey. That was probably going to happen anyway. And maybe, just maybe, we need to get Masterson ready to be a relief pitcher for a few weeks, to determine whether a move for someone such as Brian Fuentes would make sense.

Do you folks want to make a trade for a reliever? Do we need to do so? Just where has 2007 Oki gone? Also. I have to apologize, as I went on a tirade in the comments the other night about Okajima just as much if not moreso than anyone else. The issue was, truly, the offense and perhaps to a lesser degree Tito. 

Who's safe? Who's not?

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Daisuke threw a rehab start for Pawtucket, and pitched well. 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners and 5 Ks. He has proclaimed himself ready to rejoin the rotation, and as pointed out by Buster Olney last night on BBTN, is on the same schedule now as Bartolo Colon, who left the game last night with back spasms.

Believe it or not, Colon's injury might actually be a little lucky for us. No? I'll be pompous for the moment and explain.

We have three starters who are not going to be displaced in the rotation anytime soon. Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Tim Wakefield are not going anywhere. Amidst all of that, tonight's starter, Justin Masterson, has pitched well, with a 1.06 WHIP and a 7.84 K/9. Would like to see him lower his walks, because the hit-rate of ~5.2 H/9 isn't sustainable. Nonetheless, he's given the Sox no reason (other than having options left) to kick him out of the rotation. Are there any OTMers, for example, who would like to see him sent back to AAA later this week? 

However, the smart money was that Daisuke would come back and pitch in Masterson's slot, despite pitching on Colon's schedule. After all, while he hasn't been Cy-quality, Colon has pitched well enough for us, and certainly deserved another start or two to prove he wasn't a semi long-term option. Now, however, the back spasms. I anticipate this means that we might DL Colon for Daisuke in the next several days, which would allow us to keep Colon, as otherwise he might've had to be DFA'd. (I don't believe Colon has options left, and he's not really a good bullpen candidate at this point in his career)

In this case, we can now continue to keep Colon around as insurance, and when either ineffectiveness or growing concerns about inning totals start to make us more cautious about Masterson, Colon could be ready to step back into the rotation. And if Daisuke pitches a couple starts and doesn't really look ready, we can make an adjustment that way as well.

So, the next couple weeks: Becks, Lester, Wakefield, Daisuke, and Masterson

Then, potentially, Becks, Lester, Wakefield, Daisuke, and Colon again. Either way, depth is looking good for the moment, and we've got some pieces to play around with. Not to mention a couple guys on the farm that go by the names of Buchholz and Bowden. 

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Summary:

If you had told me before this game that we were set up for a pitcher's duel, I might've asked you if you needed to be in rehab. The second ML start for a young pitcher who hadn't pitched above AA? Gil Meche, who had only one game score above 57 entering last night's action?

And yet, this is all about why we watch and follow the sport. The unpredictable happens. Justin Masterson gets his first ML-win. Coco Crisp comes up with the biggest hit of the night for the Sox. Javier Lopez is the best-performing non-Papelbon reliever in the Sox bullpen. "Being" ends the night wearing the golden sombrero. Jonathan Papelbon in 1.1 IP, leads the team in WPA. The predictable happens. Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen continue to struggle.

Despite Paps' deserved WPA,  it was Masterson's night. He now has game scores of 64 and 65 in his ML-career. 9 groundball outs and 5 strikeouts. A WHIP of 0.973. He was good, and we haven't seen the last of him this season.

Co-Players of the Game:

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Wow. Joba's got nothing on Paps.

Comment of the Game:

10 minutes away and look things are the same. Lugo popping out. -sydneysox