FIP is a metric by which pitchers are judged based on how they pitch. Luck, defense, etc. are intended to be eliminated by the use of this metric. It takes into account how well a pitcher strikes out hitters, controls walks, etc. It is roughly analogous to ERA, though a better measure of how a pitcher is throwing.

Sox Starters, Descending order by FIP:

Justin Masterson: 5.16 FIP v. 3.61 ERA

Tim Wakefield: 4.85 FIP v. 3.77 ERA

Bartolo Colon: 4.45 FIP v. 4.09 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 4.18 FIP v. 5.94 ERA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.18 FIP v. 3.04 ERA

Jon Lester: 3.57 FIP v. 3.14 ERA

Josh Beckett: 3.39 FIP v. 4.15 ERA

Comments:

Beckett and Buch have been unlucky. Beckett's 4.7 K/BB should give him a leg up on the competition, but he's been allowing more HRs than he should be (1.09/9 IP) and his BABIP has been a bit higher (.324) than average (approx. .290-.300). I feel like even Buch's FIP is a bit low. He's been unlucky, but he also hasn't been great. He has, however, been better in terms of K/BB (1.91) than lucky Daisuke (1.47). This reinforced my feeling that Daisuke has actually been the harder one to watch on the mound. His % of runners LOB is about 10 higher than the league-average, and that walk rate (5.4 per 9) is downright scary. That particular house of cards could come crashing down any day now.

Masterson has also been very lucky. He's got similar problems to Daisuke, in that his LOB% is probably unsustainable. His HR rate is high, his BABIP is low (.232), and his K/BB makes me want to vomit (1.62). However, he's definitely still young, figuring it out, and his ability to get GBs has helped him out of jams. (I put him in the starter column, as the great majority of his innings are in that role)

Few pitchers match their FIP exactly, and Colon and Lester are good examples of pitchers who have been close enough to their FIP to not be deemed flukes in some way. Lester's FIP indicates that he's been a high-quality starter this season. And what have our eyes and traditional statistics told us? The same thing. Colon has looked like a league-average starter who's was reliable for us when pitching. His FIP indicates the same thing. By just the starters, Colon's K/BB is second-best among his teammates. Lester is actually 9th among 43 qualified AL starters in FIP.

Wakefield is the breaker of all rules, and to try to pin him down based on his FIP is probably pretty foolish. There are no comparisons for him, really. I'd say he might be a bit lucky, but to assume that in reality he's a 4.85 run pitcher seems wrong as well.

Sox Relievers, Descending order by FIP:

Mike Timlin: 4.41 FIP v. 5.34 ERA

Javy Lopez: 4.25 FIP v. 2.51 ERA

Hideki Okajima: 4.01 FIP v. 2.66 ERA

David Aardsma: 3.44 FIP v. 2.75 ERA

Manny Delcarmen: 3.34 FIP v. 4.05 ERA

Jonathan Papelbon: 1.94 FIP v. 2.05 ERA

Comments:

Paps is awesome. His FIP is actually better than last season, despite seeming more human than ever in the last two years. His K/BB is a strong 8.14, and he's done a better job keeping the ball in the park. MDC, similarly, has improved on his FIP from last season (3.85) by also doing a better job keeping the ball in the park and improving his walk rate. 

Oki? Well, the feeling that he would be something between last season and his horrendous start to this one is probably correct. I don't know that he's ever going to get back to how good he was last season; he was phenomenal. His BABIP (.294) is about right/average, and it has produced a somewhat predictable 1.34 WHIP. Surprisingly enough, his LOB% is higher than last season, which should shock most who've seen him let inherited runner after inherited runner score in tough situations this year.

Javy kind of sucks. I don't know how else to put it. 1.33 K/BB and a probably unsustainable LOB% of his own. Timlin, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sucked as much as we might believe. To my own eyes, he's certainly pitched a lot better as of late, and could be more trustworthy than some (Lopez) in situations. Aardsma is kind of the enigma. His stunning ability to walk a lot of people made me believe his FIP would be higher than it is, but I suppose his second-best on the Sox K-rate (9.38/9 IP) has helped with that. He's also been very stingy with the longball, best on the Sox staff in that department. We'll see how it goes, but he's certainly worth keeping around for next season.

I think he likes Boston. (via d.yimg.com)

I love this team.

Just watching Jason Bay and Jed Lowrie jumping around after winning the game made me so happy. This is a team that wants to play baseball and wants to win. That was obvious in the later innings. But after Bay crossed the plate for the winning run, did you see what he did? He got excited. He is finally playing meaningful baseball for a contender. This guy deserves it and he's going to lead us down the stretch into the playoffs.

Bay hit the huge triple in the bottom of the 12th with two outs to give the Sox a shot. He finished 1 for 3 with both runs, two walks and a hit by pitch. He was on base four times -- yes, four. And did you see him run when he hit the triple off the wall? Yup, that was our starting left fielder running around the basepaths and running hard. What a sight for sore eyes.

I can only imagine how Bay felt in his first at bat when he received a standing ovation. He had to step out of the box twice because it was so much. It was another class-act performance by the Fenway Faithful and I'm sure it's not going to stop there.

JD Drew finished 2 for 3 with three walks. Stud? Mhmm. The guy knows where the zone is and he's hitting the balls that find that zone, laying off when they aren't. With Drew and Bay batting back-to-back, we're in a good spot.

Where are the JedHeads out there? Of course Lowrie was huge, knocking in Bay twice. Once early on for the sac fly and then in the 12th. Nothing special, just a little bouncer that went over Alan Embree's head and made Bobby Crosby double-clutch.

The more I watch Lowrie play, the more I'm convinced he is the Red Sox's shortstop of the future. He's becoming more comfortable at the plate and his defense looks solid. What a great double play combination of him and Dustin Pedroia. If our defense is Lowrie, Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell for years to come, we're all set.

But most importantly, we won a game. Yes, it's the A's and they aren't a great club but a win is a win. We need to string them together to have a chance. The Sox should build off this; there's a lot of momentum here. The Sox need to hold on to it and put some more wins on the board if we want to compete down the stretch.

The downsides? Yeah, there are some. Lowell doesn't look good at the plate and, perhaps, David Ortiz looked even worse tonight. That's not good for our No. 3 and 4 hitters. But hey, we had our No. 5 and 6 guys pick them right up. They can't do that every night, but once in awhile it's OK.

Two great defensive plays of the night: Alex Cora's diving stop up the middle, turn and fired to get the out at first base. Then early in the game, with a runner on third base, Bay made a sliding catch to prevent the run. As Lou Merloni just said on NESN, "Manny wouldn't have made that play."

Tim Wakefield was very solid tonight. He threw too many pitches, but he was effective. Hideki Okajima pitched well, but left one a little too much over the plate for Jack Cust to knock over the wall. All other relievers (yes, even Mike Timlin!) had perfect innings (Jonathan Papelbon had two).

Did I mention how much I love this team?

OMG. WTF can I say here people?

Atrocious, plus a side of excruciatingly painful to watch.

Signs it's going to get better? None. And the only acquisition I'm really interested in, Damaso Marte, hasn't pitched in the AL in awhile, and could easily be cost-prohibitive. Out of 8 full-type seasons, his WHIP has only been above 1.266 twice, and he has struck out 483 hitters in 453 1/3 career innings. It's all but assured that we need to get better on an internal basis.

Masterson. I'm cautiously optimistic, if only because his sinker should make him reasonably effective in those IH situations that we've to this point only been able to use Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Mike Timlin, Javy Lopez, David Aardsma absolutely no one in. I'm concerned about his control and HR issues, however, which basically means he'll fit right in in our bullpen.

Delcarmen. All right buddy, I'm losing faith here. I've been one of your biggest defenders, I think, as others have clearly lost all thought of using him in close situations. He's simply been easier to hit this season. Last year he threw 44 innings and walked 17 while striking out 41. This season he's at 40 2/3 with 16 BB and 40 Ks. Hits? 28 last year, 37 this year.

Oki. Same issue, really, and this could've been predicted for both. Control in terms of walk rate and strikeout rate have not changed too much. 

Timlin. Am I serious? His last 5 1/3 of ridiculouslysmallsamplesize: 4 H, 1 BB, 3 Ks. I've given up on trying to figure Timlin out, but his ability to not be afraid to f'n throw strikes means I'm ready for him to try higher-leverage work again, if only because I'm ready for hits rather than walks/gift-wrapped hitters' counts to beat us in close games.

Paps. Pass. Good job buddy, even if you haven't been as crazy-dominant as the past two seasons.

Javy. Just not sure here. He had a good stretch to begin the season, but has come WAY back to Earth. Predictable, yes, and he probably doesn't need to see the kind of work he got earlier anymore. Surprisingly enough, he's looking more like a lefty specialist, with a .741 OPS against LHHs and an .814 OPS against RHHs. That .741 isn't that great, I suppose, but it means maybe we should only throw him against weak LHHs from now on. Doesn't seem that useful.

Chris Smith. 0.97 WHIP in Pawtucket this season. 45 Ks in 48 1/3. He might be a quad-A guy, certainly, but we'll never know until he gets an extended look. Seems like a guy (8 BB this season) who would make the other team beat him rather than beating himself. Refreshing?

Daniel Bard. Well. 82 Ks in 62 innings and a 0.94 WHIP. Next season, certainly, even if he doesn't make it up to help us this season.

Aardsma. Injured, and we'll see how that velocity is when he comes back. Walks too many. Walks too many. Walks too many. 

EDIT:

Conclusions. Manny D and Oki just have to become more deceptive and get into less hitters' counts. Timlin might need to see more late-inning work, if only because he'll throw strikes. Lopez would be good if he got on another run, but as of now should be mop-up and vs. LHH's only. Aardsma shows promise, less IP than MDC with great strikeout rates over his career. Some control (we could say this about a lot of people) and he'll be a rock. Hopefully Masterson can defy his BB and HR issues as a starter during his conversion to the pen. 

via www.fangraphs.com

Summary:

You know something? Cole Hamels is a very good pitcher. This is much akin to when Colon and Felix Hernandez were matched up a little while ago. Winning this game would've been stealing one from the Phillies, and they of course have a much better offense than the Mariners. Some NL teams have really started to separate themselves lately, and the Phillies are one of them. 

Speaking of that good offense, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard just steamrolled us today. Howard was 3/5 with 4 RBI, 2 HR, and a 3B. Rollins led off the bottom of the first with a HR and added two more hits. 

The Mike Timlin DFA Contest continued today, leading a lot of Sox fans to believe that he should be shipped...somewhere. 4 ER in 0.2 IP. Of course, all of our other relievers pitched well, reinforcing the idea that Timlin shouldn't be in games that are closer than 4-128 runs. Lopez, Aardsma, and especially Oki (Who not only looked good by the box score, but looked like he had his pitches working) combined for 3 1/3 scoreless.

J.D. Drew continued his good performance at the plate, going 1/3 with a HR and a BB. The real offensive star was DP, who went 3/4 with a HR and a 2B. Lugo was 1/2 with a 2B and a BB, and Sean Casey was 2/4 with a 2B. Manuel was...not good at the plate last night, with an 0-4, GIDP and a K.

Player of the Game:

via d.yimg.com

Yeah. It's from the Baltimore series. So what?

Comment of the Game:

I'm not sure Cora is much better at the plate than Colon. -Drugs Delaney

via www.fangraphs.com

Summary:

Bartolo Colon was able to get to his 150th win against the Orioles tonight, pitching a strong game, 6 innings, 6 baserunners, 1 run and 7 strikeouts, while getting good help from the offense and the 'pen.

David Aardsma and Javier Lopez proved that, well, one or both of them should've pitched before Hideki Okajima last night. Temporarily, we should adjust the depth chart as follows: Begin Tangent

Paps, MDC, Hansen, Lopez, Aardsma, Okajima, Timlin.

If that doesn't work for you, suggest an alternate setup in the comments. We probably have to hope that Oki is able to work things out, because Hansen is still not yet an ideal setup man. I agree with ecoli in that Hansen's fastball can look flat/straight at times, though his fastball can also look Paps/MDC-like, with that good late movement. He's a bit of a mystery, but still seems more reliable to my overreacting mind than Oki. To continue this complete tangent, Bard's semi-troubles in AA are still not awful. He's got a 1.20 WHIP and 17 Ks in 13 1/3. Perhaps not the meteoric rise some idiots (read: me) thought, but we'll have to see if he can adjust a bit down there. End Tangent

Offensively? Tek lead the way with his 3-run HR, and Lowell added a solo dong in the 6th. Drew continues to take care of business in the 3-spot, with a walk and a 2B. He's now up to a .968 OPS, ladies and gents. Ells and Lugo both reached once and both stole second while out there. Youks and Lowell both walked twice apiece as well. 

Timlin, of course, came in and made things more interesting than they needed to be, with an "assist" from DP at 2b. Paps got the final out on 5 pitches for his 19th save.

Player of the Game:

via d.yimg.com

Congrats on his 150th. Let's hope 175 and 200 pass just as easily as this one.

Comment of the Game:

"It's over. Congratulations to Bartolo Colon on career win #150." -Drugs Delaney

"Kudos to him. He pitched really well today." -MerryGoByeBye

via d.yimg.com

Chien-Ming Wang made the Red Sox his whipping boys last night.

I always give credit where credit is due. The player that deserves the only credit from last night is Wang who shut down the Sox to the tune of just 2 hits and one run over 9 innings of work.

Wang has a strong arsenal of pitches, but usually not everything of his is on. Last night, everything was on. The most impressive thing may have been his fastball which hit 95 consistently. Sox batters didn't look ready for that.

Unfortunately, Clay Buchholz goes completely overlooked but he handled the Yankees lineup pretty well last night. His curveball was on and he painted the corners for most of the night. Buchholz ended up throwing 99 pitches over 6 innings, but only surrendered one run. He walked 3 and struck out 3.

The offense obviously wasn't there last night. But the man that stepped up -- AGAIN -- was JD Drew. Drew hit a dinger in the fifth inning to finally put the Sox on the board. Coco Crisp had the only other hit for the Sox.

I'm not really worried about the offense. I'm more worried about the bullpen. Mike Timlin let this game get out of hand in his first outing of the season. Timlin gave up 2 runs and only recorded one out.

Timlin looks like he doesn't have much left. I think he'll battle it out through the rest of the season, but I can't see him pitching in 2009. His tank is running on empty and I think we saw a glimer of that last night.

Hideki Okajima looked good, but only worked two batters. Javier Lopez came in, struggled, but didn't give up a run. Then my bullpen sleeper Mr. David Aardsma came in to keep it close. He surrendered a run, but he was throwing heat and got the last 4 outs for the Sox. Aardsma could develop into the Sox's 7th inning guy.

Sox look for revenge today at 3.

Comment of the Game:

"Chein Mein has no wang" - BoSox415 (Had to use this one...)

P.S. Sean Casey looked pretty good last night...