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It was safe to say Josh Beckett's struggles the other day were due to an injury, and now he's saying he has felt numbess and tingling in his arm:

Beckett said he slept awkwardly on the arm before Sunday's start against the Blue Jays, a start in which he gave up 8 runs in 2 2/3 innings.

"Just something I've been dealing with," Beckett said. "At some point in time, just got to figure out what the [heck] it is. Obviously it's not what I want, but I think at this juncture it's something that needs to happen. Obviously there's something going on."

Beckett said the numbness remains in his pinky and ring finger, and has been there since Sunday, though it has improved over time. There is "not very much pain at all with it," he said. "You've got to figure out what the [heck] it is. You don't want it to get so bad to where it ends up being a really bad problem."

It appears that this isn't exactly a new problem for Beckett. While he said he has never dealt with it "on that level," including on a day he's been on the mound, it is something that he and the team have monitored over time.

Beckett's start has been pushed back from Saturday to Tuesday. The starters in Toronto will be Paul Byrd, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka with Beckett's start being pushed back.

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This is exactly what the Red Sox needed.

Yeah, we only split with the White Sox (it should have been better), but there was no better way to go out than with a dominating start by our true ace, Josh Beckett. He went eight innings, allowed seven hits, one run, no walks and struck out eight.

Beckett hasn't been himself this season -- we all know that. And the Red Sox, really, haven't been at their best. I really think that if Beckett continue to pitch like this, the Red Sox are going to get right back on track with him.

Imagine how hard it must be when you know your best pitcher isn't on his A-game. I'm sure it's not the best feeling, going out to play when even your best pitcher isn't at his best. As long as Beckett is pitching like this, maybe the Sox will find the same tracks he is on and follow him.

The offense tonight was great -- after the sixth inning. Kevin Youkilis broke up John Danks' no-hitter in the seventh where the Red Sox started to pour on. JD Drew followed with a double to score Youkilis and Mike Lowell and put the Sox up, 2-1. Jed Lowrie added two more with a double in the ninth and Lowrie came across the plate himself on a Jacoby Ellsbury single.

Tomorrow on the scheduler is the knuckleballer. No, not Tim Wakefield but Charlie Zink. This will be the first time the Red Sox have two knuckleballers on the same team since 1953. Zink will be really fun to watch, but since he last pitched on Friday, I'm not sure how he'll perform.

Over the past four years, teams named Sox have won three World Series titles. This week, the two Sox teams meet for an epic four-game battle with important playoff implications.

The Chicago White Sox were not supposed to compete this year. Baseball Prospectus pegged them third in the division, projecting a 78-84 season (.481 Win %) behind the Indians and Tigers. Instead, they stand atop the division (63-50, .558), the Indians are dead last, and the Tigers are trying to claw their way up from third place.

In some ways this could be expected. The Indians did nothing to improve their team, which was lucky in 2007 (5 games above their Pythagorean record). In addition, last year they ran up the innings of both Sabathia and Carmona, adversely affecting their performances this year. Injuries and trades were all it took to knock Cleveland out completely. Meanwhile, the Tigers subtracted by addition, trading Jair Jurrjens for the black hole known as Edgar Renteria, and moving their other top prospects for Dontrelle Willis (who is injured and sucks) and Miguel Cabrera (who's having a good season). Meanwhile, the White Sox got Scott Linebrink, Nick Swisher, Orlando Cabrera, breakout slugger Carlos Quentin, and most recently Ken Griffey Jr. Combined with greatly improved pitching, Chicago's AL team is a force to be reckoned with.

The White Sox have solid pitching (6th in AL team ERA) and a good offense (4th in AL runs scored), making for a much more balanced team than their World Series squad. Young hurlers John Danks and Gavin Floyd, both with sub-4 ERAs, make for a very strong 1-2 punch, and we'll also see Mark Buehrle and Jose Contreras in this series.

One positive for this series is that the White Sox pitching has been much worse of late. In July, their starters posted an ERA of 5.06; so far in August they've put up a cumulative ERA of 7.52. Floyd and Buehrle in particular are both coming off bad starts, and Contreras is coming off the DL. Chicago's relievers have also been knocked around: as their 5.70 and 4.38 ERAs in July and August attest. Setup man Scott Linebrink is on the DL, so the Sox may be facing Chicago at an opportune time.

Matchups are evenly lopsided. On paper, Boston has an edge in the first two games and seems at a disadvantage in the last two.

Friday: Lester (3.14) vs. Buehrle (4.07)
Saturday: Matsuzaka (3.04) vs. Contreras (4.60)
Sunday: Buchholz (5.94) vs. Floyd (3.66)
Monday: Beckett (4.08) vs. Danks (3.21)

Based on matchups alone, this battle of the laundry looks like a wash. However, I think the Sox can take three of four, particularly if Beckett builds on his success last game, or if Buch outpitches Floyd. Maybe Boston pulls the wool over Chicago's eyes and sweeps the whole series. In any case, I hope we sock it to 'em!

FIP is a metric by which pitchers are judged based on how they pitch. Luck, defense, etc. are intended to be eliminated by the use of this metric. It takes into account how well a pitcher strikes out hitters, controls walks, etc. It is roughly analogous to ERA, though a better measure of how a pitcher is throwing.

Sox Starters, Descending order by FIP:

Justin Masterson: 5.16 FIP v. 3.61 ERA

Tim Wakefield: 4.85 FIP v. 3.77 ERA

Bartolo Colon: 4.45 FIP v. 4.09 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 4.18 FIP v. 5.94 ERA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.18 FIP v. 3.04 ERA

Jon Lester: 3.57 FIP v. 3.14 ERA

Josh Beckett: 3.39 FIP v. 4.15 ERA

Comments:

Beckett and Buch have been unlucky. Beckett's 4.7 K/BB should give him a leg up on the competition, but he's been allowing more HRs than he should be (1.09/9 IP) and his BABIP has been a bit higher (.324) than average (approx. .290-.300). I feel like even Buch's FIP is a bit low. He's been unlucky, but he also hasn't been great. He has, however, been better in terms of K/BB (1.91) than lucky Daisuke (1.47). This reinforced my feeling that Daisuke has actually been the harder one to watch on the mound. His % of runners LOB is about 10 higher than the league-average, and that walk rate (5.4 per 9) is downright scary. That particular house of cards could come crashing down any day now.

Masterson has also been very lucky. He's got similar problems to Daisuke, in that his LOB% is probably unsustainable. His HR rate is high, his BABIP is low (.232), and his K/BB makes me want to vomit (1.62). However, he's definitely still young, figuring it out, and his ability to get GBs has helped him out of jams. (I put him in the starter column, as the great majority of his innings are in that role)

Few pitchers match their FIP exactly, and Colon and Lester are good examples of pitchers who have been close enough to their FIP to not be deemed flukes in some way. Lester's FIP indicates that he's been a high-quality starter this season. And what have our eyes and traditional statistics told us? The same thing. Colon has looked like a league-average starter who's was reliable for us when pitching. His FIP indicates the same thing. By just the starters, Colon's K/BB is second-best among his teammates. Lester is actually 9th among 43 qualified AL starters in FIP.

Wakefield is the breaker of all rules, and to try to pin him down based on his FIP is probably pretty foolish. There are no comparisons for him, really. I'd say he might be a bit lucky, but to assume that in reality he's a 4.85 run pitcher seems wrong as well.

Sox Relievers, Descending order by FIP:

Mike Timlin: 4.41 FIP v. 5.34 ERA

Javy Lopez: 4.25 FIP v. 2.51 ERA

Hideki Okajima: 4.01 FIP v. 2.66 ERA

David Aardsma: 3.44 FIP v. 2.75 ERA

Manny Delcarmen: 3.34 FIP v. 4.05 ERA

Jonathan Papelbon: 1.94 FIP v. 2.05 ERA

Comments:

Paps is awesome. His FIP is actually better than last season, despite seeming more human than ever in the last two years. His K/BB is a strong 8.14, and he's done a better job keeping the ball in the park. MDC, similarly, has improved on his FIP from last season (3.85) by also doing a better job keeping the ball in the park and improving his walk rate. 

Oki? Well, the feeling that he would be something between last season and his horrendous start to this one is probably correct. I don't know that he's ever going to get back to how good he was last season; he was phenomenal. His BABIP (.294) is about right/average, and it has produced a somewhat predictable 1.34 WHIP. Surprisingly enough, his LOB% is higher than last season, which should shock most who've seen him let inherited runner after inherited runner score in tough situations this year.

Javy kind of sucks. I don't know how else to put it. 1.33 K/BB and a probably unsustainable LOB% of his own. Timlin, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sucked as much as we might believe. To my own eyes, he's certainly pitched a lot better as of late, and could be more trustworthy than some (Lopez) in situations. Aardsma is kind of the enigma. His stunning ability to walk a lot of people made me believe his FIP would be higher than it is, but I suppose his second-best on the Sox K-rate (9.38/9 IP) has helped with that. He's also been very stingy with the longball, best on the Sox staff in that department. We'll see how it goes, but he's certainly worth keeping around for next season.

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Summary:

Josh Beckett in control.

Team takes field in bottom of 7th.

F. Crapspackle.

You know, the way it happened is what sucked and was surprising. The fact that, despite the Sox mostly playing the Angels very well over the last few seasons, in the postseason and all, doesn't change that I never feel like we've got the upper hand going into their stadium. It might just be my memory, but I feel like they almost always take care of business against us when we're there.

Yet another day of Youks' providing the offense. 2-run jack in the 2nd. DP (2-4, BB), Drew (1-3, 2B, 2 BB), "Being" (1-3, 2B, 2 BB) all had good days at the plate as well. It simply wasn't enough. We simply have to be a little unconventional when Pawtucket Red Sox slugger David Ortiz makes it up to the big club. Drew to the leadoff spot. Let's get it done. 

Player of the Game:

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Not for this, really.

Misconceptions?

I, for one, will boo most any Yankee player at any time they're not hitting or pitching in a game that could somehow have a good impact for the Sox.

I, also, am sure that Jeter heard a bit from the Fenway Faithful in 1999 at the AS Game. I hope it wasn't while he was actually on the field or hitting, but I'd have booed loudly as his introduction. The pinstripes have that effect on me.

What Paps' wife heard from MFY-fans is ridiculous. What Paps heard from MFY-fans is to be expected, and probably shouldn't be derided on its own. His words were in many instances taken as incomplete quotes for rag-selling purposes, but to say he didn't at least partially stick his foot in his mouth is a little too homerish for me.

I worry a little about Papi coming back; I'm worried about Drew's excellent on-base skills being stuck right in front of 'Tek and Crisp. ...no thank you.

Manuel v. John Henry: Umm. F, guys. Henry was diplomatic but honest. Manuel, we should all be hoping, was referring only to LL. I'd hate to think that Henry and Theo are more duplicitous than their jobs naturally require. 

via images.barnesandnoble.com

It is usually hard for me to pick up a book and read it right through in just a couple of sittings. Usually I pick the book up and read 10 pages at a time. That tends to end with A) me never finishing the book or B) finishing the book 2.5 years later. With "Deep Drive" by Mike Lowell with Rob Bradford, I finished it in about four sittings.

I was unsure what I would get out of this book before I started reading it. I've read books "by" athletes "with" journalists before, and they tend not to be anything special. They tend to be the typical, "I did this, this and this. Yay for me," type of story. I was pleasantly surprised very quickly in to this book.

As you can imagine, a good chunk of this book is about Lowell's battle with cancer. The book does a fantastic job to help the reader understand how Lowell was feeling during all those moments. There were times when I felt like I was with Lowell when he was given the bad news. Plus there were moments when he had cancer scares and his wife, Bertica, had some personal issues.

On the lighter sides of things, there was a lot on his ability as a baseball player. The man could barely hit the ball for extra bases in high school, let alone a home run. Also to note, do you know who his double play partner was in high school? None other than Alex Rodriguez. Lowell, the second baseman, and Rodriguez, the shortstop, weren't fully developed at that point -- Rodriguez hit eighth in the lineup, Lowell ninth. Think that coach still has his job?

When it came down to the nitty gritty of hitting and defense, that's when I was really intrigued. Of course, there's no one better to learn the art of playing defense at the hot corner than Mike Lowell. He had a section of one chapter just talking about his old glove and new glove. Sounds boring to the casual fan, but I was on the edge of my seat.

On regards of hitting, there was an interesting part about when he was in a slump during spring training with the Sox. At one point he basically told former Sox hitting coach Ron "Papa" Jackson that he wasn't going to keep messing with his stance and stuff because it just wasn't working. Jackson kept making all these suggestions, but Lowell couldn't keep up with them because it just stunted his growth. That lead to Lowell explain when a hitter just knows he's hitting the ball well, despite it being a hit or a line drive or anything else.

There were some really hilarious parts of the book. One part that stands out in my mind was when Dustin Pedroia challenged Lowell to a game of ping pong. And since Lowell can handle himself at the table, he accepted. The result was 28 wins in a row for Lowell. Pedroia finally won a game after Lowell gave him a huge lead to start the game. Pedroia went yelling and screaming in the clubhouse, prompting Terry Francona to say something along the lines of: "What, did they cut the legs off the table so you could see over it?"

Lowell had a lot of high praise for a lot of people. One person in particular was Josh Beckett, who wrote the foreward to the book. Ever since their days in Florida they have been close and the trade even made their bond stronger. Out of anyone, Lowell probably gave more credit to Beckett than anyone else in this book. A lot of it was based off of his attitude and how much of a badass performer he is.

I was worried Lowell wasn't going to talk about the 2007 off-season, obviously something that should have been noted. But I was pleasantly surprised to read the epilogue and find all that information there. Lowell continued to say that he loved Boston and he loved the fans and didn't want to leave, but he was also tempted by other suitors. But what it came down to was that he wanted to stay in Boston because he loved it so much.

What I will take most out of this book is just how great of a guy Lowell is and how much he really does care about the fans. He is a down to earth family man and that's what I appreciate most about these athletes. It's easy to be a jerk and do whatever you want, but guys like Lowell are the opposite. He's the heart of the sport of baseball. He and guys like him are the reason the sport ticks. It's a true pleasure to be a fan of his.

I definitely recommend this book to all Sox fans that cherished watching Lowell succeed through the 2007 seasons. In the end, I give this book 4 out of 5 Bill Muellers (as much as I like Lowell, I still love Bill Mueller).

Who's safe? Who's not?

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Daisuke threw a rehab start for Pawtucket, and pitched well. 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners and 5 Ks. He has proclaimed himself ready to rejoin the rotation, and as pointed out by Buster Olney last night on BBTN, is on the same schedule now as Bartolo Colon, who left the game last night with back spasms.

Believe it or not, Colon's injury might actually be a little lucky for us. No? I'll be pompous for the moment and explain.

We have three starters who are not going to be displaced in the rotation anytime soon. Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Tim Wakefield are not going anywhere. Amidst all of that, tonight's starter, Justin Masterson, has pitched well, with a 1.06 WHIP and a 7.84 K/9. Would like to see him lower his walks, because the hit-rate of ~5.2 H/9 isn't sustainable. Nonetheless, he's given the Sox no reason (other than having options left) to kick him out of the rotation. Are there any OTMers, for example, who would like to see him sent back to AAA later this week? 

However, the smart money was that Daisuke would come back and pitch in Masterson's slot, despite pitching on Colon's schedule. After all, while he hasn't been Cy-quality, Colon has pitched well enough for us, and certainly deserved another start or two to prove he wasn't a semi long-term option. Now, however, the back spasms. I anticipate this means that we might DL Colon for Daisuke in the next several days, which would allow us to keep Colon, as otherwise he might've had to be DFA'd. (I don't believe Colon has options left, and he's not really a good bullpen candidate at this point in his career)

In this case, we can now continue to keep Colon around as insurance, and when either ineffectiveness or growing concerns about inning totals start to make us more cautious about Masterson, Colon could be ready to step back into the rotation. And if Daisuke pitches a couple starts and doesn't really look ready, we can make an adjustment that way as well.

So, the next couple weeks: Becks, Lester, Wakefield, Daisuke, and Masterson

Then, potentially, Becks, Lester, Wakefield, Daisuke, and Colon again. Either way, depth is looking good for the moment, and we've got some pieces to play around with. Not to mention a couple guys on the farm that go by the names of Buchholz and Bowden. 

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I'm like everyone else. I've felt from time-to-time this season that Josh Beckett just hasn't been what he was last year.  Were we spoiled last season? Has he actually been worse? Have his record and +4.00 ERA (before yesterday) made us over-critical of his performance?

Well, after reading this article on Fangraphs, I have to conclude that we have been. His K/BB is actually up from a year ago, at 5.24, which is pretty much entirely due to a higher K-rate. His WHIP is 1.13, as opposed to 1.14 last season. In short, while we've been debating whether Jon Lester, or Daisuke has been our best pitcher this season, Beckett has continued to be our ace for all intents and purposes. Of course, this is probably easier for people to think about now given that he's improved his ERA to 3.87 and his record to 7-4. 

The only thing that's really changed, as pointed out by Eric Seidman at Fangraphs, is Beckett's HR rate. He's getting less GBs than last season, and some of those extra line drives and flyballs have become HRs. It's probably not a large point of concern. I think he'll settle somewhere in-between his current 1.15 HR/9 and last season's 0.76 HR/9. If that happens, then as surprising as it may be, Beckett might still get some Cy attention at the end of the season.

With apologies to Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and even Tim Wakefield and Justin Masterson, Beckett still wears the big pants in the rotation. I think we're probably all more comfortable that way.

via www.fangraphs.com

Summary:

Well, it wasn't vintage Becks, no matter how much the numbers might tell us otherwise. There was some iffiness, and an injury-scare. He certainly did get the job done though, and I'm not going to say he didn't earn the win. He absolutely did. And the iffiness could be chalked up to the raininess, I suppose.

Following Becks was three strong innings of relief from MDC, Oki, and Hansen in that order. MDC, in particular, looked pretty strong, striking out the side in the 7th. We need one (ideally two) of those three to start looking like a lockdown setup man. 

Our new (hopefully he remains so) #3 hitter was the top performer on the night, 2-3, 2 R, BB, SB. This is what they envisioned from Drew, and to say that this'll be the norm from now on probably isn't fair. But the fact remains, he's a very talented hitter who works the count and gets on base at an excellent rate. He should be higher in the lineup with Papi out, so that "Being" and Lowell can knock him in, rather than standing on 1B while Lugo and Coco fail to do so. As far as Coco goes? I haven't seen a good angle replay of either of his SB attempts, so I couldn't hazard a guess as to whether anyone is right at all in that mess. 

Eric Hinske stealing 3B? 'Tek and Becks should be embarrassed. 

Player of the Game:

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Could be that Becks is that statistically better choice for this game, but Drew hit well in this one and deserves some recognition for his play of late. Is this like the NBA giving the MVP to Kobe rather than KG or Chris Paul? *Shrugs* Also, no. 

Rant-o-licious:

So Papi is out? So what? Or, I just want to weigh in. Like FJM does, twice. But honestly. If he's out for longer than a month, or for the rest of the season, we might have to explore outside options. I've seen many bandied about, but one has been conspicuously absent, probably because his GM is bluffing that he's not on the block. But why wouldn't he be? This player is: 1) Hitting well, 2) Might be too old to be part of the "next great X team", 3) Talented OF who can play all 3 spots while also being potent enough offensively to DH, 4) Patient at the plate, 5) Seems to have matured since his early years in the Majors. This is the kind of player, when you should be in somewhat of a rebuilding mode, that can bring you back a good return to help your team in the future. And who is our mystery guest?

Milton Bradley. Let the virtual-flogging begin. (I am, of course, aware of his ridiculous BABIP and some other issues that come along with him. I still think he'd be a better option (tradewise, that is) than many of the other names brought up thusfar.)

5.01.08 v. Jays

Summary In a Nutshell:

A.J. Burnett. Tim Wakefield. We should've seen it coming.

Player of the Game:

Burnett. .487 WPA on his own. 

Comment of the Game:

Wow. When did we become the Twins? -MerryGoByeBye

5.02.08 v. Rays

Summary In a Nutshell:

Edwin Jackson = inconsistent. We should've seen it coming.

Player of the Game:

WPA says Buch (.221). I say: SwordBat-fighting midgets.

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Comment of the Game:

I'm on Gameday. How irate should I be about the throwing error by Lugo? -nuthinboutnuthin

5.03.08

Summary In a Nutshell:

James Shields. Josh Beckett. Revenge. We should have seen it coming.

Player of the Game:

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Comment of the Game:

On the plus side...I am forced to admit that Lugo is looking sharp at the plate. WTF? -nuthinboutnuthin