FIP is a metric by which pitchers are judged based on how they pitch. Luck, defense, etc. are intended to be eliminated by the use of this metric. It takes into account how well a pitcher strikes out hitters, controls walks, etc. It is roughly analogous to ERA, though a better measure of how a pitcher is throwing.

Sox Starters, Descending order by FIP:

Justin Masterson: 5.16 FIP v. 3.61 ERA

Tim Wakefield: 4.85 FIP v. 3.77 ERA

Bartolo Colon: 4.45 FIP v. 4.09 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 4.18 FIP v. 5.94 ERA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.18 FIP v. 3.04 ERA

Jon Lester: 3.57 FIP v. 3.14 ERA

Josh Beckett: 3.39 FIP v. 4.15 ERA

Comments:

Beckett and Buch have been unlucky. Beckett's 4.7 K/BB should give him a leg up on the competition, but he's been allowing more HRs than he should be (1.09/9 IP) and his BABIP has been a bit higher (.324) than average (approx. .290-.300). I feel like even Buch's FIP is a bit low. He's been unlucky, but he also hasn't been great. He has, however, been better in terms of K/BB (1.91) than lucky Daisuke (1.47). This reinforced my feeling that Daisuke has actually been the harder one to watch on the mound. His % of runners LOB is about 10 higher than the league-average, and that walk rate (5.4 per 9) is downright scary. That particular house of cards could come crashing down any day now.

Masterson has also been very lucky. He's got similar problems to Daisuke, in that his LOB% is probably unsustainable. His HR rate is high, his BABIP is low (.232), and his K/BB makes me want to vomit (1.62). However, he's definitely still young, figuring it out, and his ability to get GBs has helped him out of jams. (I put him in the starter column, as the great majority of his innings are in that role)

Few pitchers match their FIP exactly, and Colon and Lester are good examples of pitchers who have been close enough to their FIP to not be deemed flukes in some way. Lester's FIP indicates that he's been a high-quality starter this season. And what have our eyes and traditional statistics told us? The same thing. Colon has looked like a league-average starter who's was reliable for us when pitching. His FIP indicates the same thing. By just the starters, Colon's K/BB is second-best among his teammates. Lester is actually 9th among 43 qualified AL starters in FIP.

Wakefield is the breaker of all rules, and to try to pin him down based on his FIP is probably pretty foolish. There are no comparisons for him, really. I'd say he might be a bit lucky, but to assume that in reality he's a 4.85 run pitcher seems wrong as well.

Sox Relievers, Descending order by FIP:

Mike Timlin: 4.41 FIP v. 5.34 ERA

Javy Lopez: 4.25 FIP v. 2.51 ERA

Hideki Okajima: 4.01 FIP v. 2.66 ERA

David Aardsma: 3.44 FIP v. 2.75 ERA

Manny Delcarmen: 3.34 FIP v. 4.05 ERA

Jonathan Papelbon: 1.94 FIP v. 2.05 ERA

Comments:

Paps is awesome. His FIP is actually better than last season, despite seeming more human than ever in the last two years. His K/BB is a strong 8.14, and he's done a better job keeping the ball in the park. MDC, similarly, has improved on his FIP from last season (3.85) by also doing a better job keeping the ball in the park and improving his walk rate. 

Oki? Well, the feeling that he would be something between last season and his horrendous start to this one is probably correct. I don't know that he's ever going to get back to how good he was last season; he was phenomenal. His BABIP (.294) is about right/average, and it has produced a somewhat predictable 1.34 WHIP. Surprisingly enough, his LOB% is higher than last season, which should shock most who've seen him let inherited runner after inherited runner score in tough situations this year.

Javy kind of sucks. I don't know how else to put it. 1.33 K/BB and a probably unsustainable LOB% of his own. Timlin, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sucked as much as we might believe. To my own eyes, he's certainly pitched a lot better as of late, and could be more trustworthy than some (Lopez) in situations. Aardsma is kind of the enigma. His stunning ability to walk a lot of people made me believe his FIP would be higher than it is, but I suppose his second-best on the Sox K-rate (9.38/9 IP) has helped with that. He's also been very stingy with the longball, best on the Sox staff in that department. We'll see how it goes, but he's certainly worth keeping around for next season.

OMG. WTF can I say here people?

Atrocious, plus a side of excruciatingly painful to watch.

Signs it's going to get better? None. And the only acquisition I'm really interested in, Damaso Marte, hasn't pitched in the AL in awhile, and could easily be cost-prohibitive. Out of 8 full-type seasons, his WHIP has only been above 1.266 twice, and he has struck out 483 hitters in 453 1/3 career innings. It's all but assured that we need to get better on an internal basis.

Masterson. I'm cautiously optimistic, if only because his sinker should make him reasonably effective in those IH situations that we've to this point only been able to use Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Mike Timlin, Javy Lopez, David Aardsma absolutely no one in. I'm concerned about his control and HR issues, however, which basically means he'll fit right in in our bullpen.

Delcarmen. All right buddy, I'm losing faith here. I've been one of your biggest defenders, I think, as others have clearly lost all thought of using him in close situations. He's simply been easier to hit this season. Last year he threw 44 innings and walked 17 while striking out 41. This season he's at 40 2/3 with 16 BB and 40 Ks. Hits? 28 last year, 37 this year.

Oki. Same issue, really, and this could've been predicted for both. Control in terms of walk rate and strikeout rate have not changed too much. 

Timlin. Am I serious? His last 5 1/3 of ridiculouslysmallsamplesize: 4 H, 1 BB, 3 Ks. I've given up on trying to figure Timlin out, but his ability to not be afraid to f'n throw strikes means I'm ready for him to try higher-leverage work again, if only because I'm ready for hits rather than walks/gift-wrapped hitters' counts to beat us in close games.

Paps. Pass. Good job buddy, even if you haven't been as crazy-dominant as the past two seasons.

Javy. Just not sure here. He had a good stretch to begin the season, but has come WAY back to Earth. Predictable, yes, and he probably doesn't need to see the kind of work he got earlier anymore. Surprisingly enough, he's looking more like a lefty specialist, with a .741 OPS against LHHs and an .814 OPS against RHHs. That .741 isn't that great, I suppose, but it means maybe we should only throw him against weak LHHs from now on. Doesn't seem that useful.

Chris Smith. 0.97 WHIP in Pawtucket this season. 45 Ks in 48 1/3. He might be a quad-A guy, certainly, but we'll never know until he gets an extended look. Seems like a guy (8 BB this season) who would make the other team beat him rather than beating himself. Refreshing?

Daniel Bard. Well. 82 Ks in 62 innings and a 0.94 WHIP. Next season, certainly, even if he doesn't make it up to help us this season.

Aardsma. Injured, and we'll see how that velocity is when he comes back. Walks too many. Walks too many. Walks too many. 

EDIT:

Conclusions. Manny D and Oki just have to become more deceptive and get into less hitters' counts. Timlin might need to see more late-inning work, if only because he'll throw strikes. Lopez would be good if he got on another run, but as of now should be mop-up and vs. LHH's only. Aardsma shows promise, less IP than MDC with great strikeout rates over his career. Some control (we could say this about a lot of people) and he'll be a rock. Hopefully Masterson can defy his BB and HR issues as a starter during his conversion to the pen. 

via d.yimg.com

Can I admit I'm not exactly Paps up there when thinking about how the bullpen has been used lately? Our players love playing for Tito and some of that has to do with the confidence he shows in them in certain situations. 

Paps, for example, belongs to save situations and that's not going to change anytime soon, and it shouldn't. MDC is the RHP called upon most often in the 7th/8th in close games. Again. No problem. 

The issue, here, is some heralded RPs who need to switch roles with their, perhaps, less-heralded counterparts. 

Craig Hansen has been up-and-down since called up, looking better than MDC at times, and looking worse than Timlin at others. Yet Tito has shown confidence in Hansen, putting him in situations where the score is close and the Sox are deep into the game. The fact of the matter is, despite how good he was today (and he was, awesome). He needs some of what Joe Morgan might refer to as consistency before he's trusted as the third option out of the pen.

Hideki Okajima. I wish I had some confidence in him. But I just don't. I have to wonder why he was in the game late yesterday, rather than David Aardsma, but of course remembered that we used/wasted Aardsma in back-to-back losses. I don't know what Oki needs, but he needs to put in some impressive work in garbage time to earn our confidence to pitch him late in games. Until then.

Javy Lopez. I wouldn't be saying this last year. But, for now, Javy needs to be getting those high-leverage situations when Tito/Farrell want a lefty. Javy's been effective this year, for whatever reason, and we should keep riding that while it lasts. The fact that his total numbers indicate that he's making hitters, in general, look like Jason Varitek (.703 OPS against, v. .717 OPS) is as encouraging about Lopez as it is discouraging about our captain.

David Aardsma. Aardsma has earned a shot at some more important situations, especially given his performance this weekend, striking out the side in two straight games. A 1.30 WHIP and 36 Ks in 34+? Not lights-out, but certainly better than many of our other options.

In, short, get J-Lo and Aardsma out of these blowout games and near-losses, and let's start using a couple of our best relievers as they should be used.

Oh. And Mike Timlin needs to be moved from the 15-day DL to the foreverplease RL. Yes. I'm in the camp that believes he's pretty much entirely cooked. I know he proved us all wrong last season, but it just seems different.

I suppose some trades could be made to help our cause. Names that intrigue me:

Jon Rauch: 33 Ks and 35 baserunners in 36 2/3. Toiling away for the last-place Nationals.

Alan Embree: Looks like he's gotten his mojo back in Oakland. 31 Ks and a 1.24 WHIP in 30 2/3.

Damaso Marte: He's been excellent, in Pittsburgh,with 39 Ks in 36 1/3 and a 1.07 WHIP. Last I've seen is that Pittsburgh might hold on to him the rest of the year, but I don't know how much sense that makes for them.

Who'd be a fair return for these cats? I dunno. Throw down some ideas in the comments.

via www.fangraphs.com

Summary:

Let's get this out of the way first. Daisuke was not sharp. Walks. Hits. Runs. Only 2 Ks, but like 8,569 pitches to get through five innings. He gave way to David Aardsma, who was ultimately capable of getting six outs to bridge the gap to Oki/Paps Timlin/MDC despite being a student of the Matsuzaka-Lester Institute of First-Pitch Strikes. The Timlin half of tonight's original equation was crap. All there is to it. Didn't have it, and the Yankees just jumped all over him. It was looking grim, my friends. However, Javier Lopez shathebed was able to come in, get a double play ball as well as another groundout to escape the inning with the Sox only having given back one run. J-Lo retired Abreu in the 9th, then gave way to MDC, who had a bit of a Papelbon-vibe going on from the get-go. He got A-Rod to strikeout and Matsui to groundout to end the game.

Offense? Yeah, we got that too. 'Tek was the only Sox hitter not to reach base. Stolen bases from Coco (2), Tacoby, and DP. Both Tacoby and Youks knocked in two runs apiece, while Drew and "Being" each scored twice. ...boo-yah. It was the usual, I guess. Sox stringing together the walks and hits, with patience and good execution at the plate and on the basepaths (am I forgetting DP something?)

Player of the Game:

via d.yimg.com

Highest WPA? Most clutchiest grittiest gameriest performance? Both, my friends. It's J-Lo tonight.

Comment of the Game:

Speed can really make things happen. I never really grasped that idea, growing up with Wade Boggs' Red Sox. - tommy

Too true, tommy

via d.yimg.com

Chien-Ming Wang made the Red Sox his whipping boys last night.

I always give credit where credit is due. The player that deserves the only credit from last night is Wang who shut down the Sox to the tune of just 2 hits and one run over 9 innings of work.

Wang has a strong arsenal of pitches, but usually not everything of his is on. Last night, everything was on. The most impressive thing may have been his fastball which hit 95 consistently. Sox batters didn't look ready for that.

Unfortunately, Clay Buchholz goes completely overlooked but he handled the Yankees lineup pretty well last night. His curveball was on and he painted the corners for most of the night. Buchholz ended up throwing 99 pitches over 6 innings, but only surrendered one run. He walked 3 and struck out 3.

The offense obviously wasn't there last night. But the man that stepped up -- AGAIN -- was JD Drew. Drew hit a dinger in the fifth inning to finally put the Sox on the board. Coco Crisp had the only other hit for the Sox.

I'm not really worried about the offense. I'm more worried about the bullpen. Mike Timlin let this game get out of hand in his first outing of the season. Timlin gave up 2 runs and only recorded one out.

Timlin looks like he doesn't have much left. I think he'll battle it out through the rest of the season, but I can't see him pitching in 2009. His tank is running on empty and I think we saw a glimer of that last night.

Hideki Okajima looked good, but only worked two batters. Javier Lopez came in, struggled, but didn't give up a run. Then my bullpen sleeper Mr. David Aardsma came in to keep it close. He surrendered a run, but he was throwing heat and got the last 4 outs for the Sox. Aardsma could develop into the Sox's 7th inning guy.

Sox look for revenge today at 3.

Comment of the Game:

"Chein Mein has no wang" - BoSox415 (Had to use this one...)

P.S. Sean Casey looked pretty good last night...