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Daisuke Matszuaka had another five-walk game, but it was good enough to lead his team to a 7-2 win over Baltimore Tuesday.

Kevin Youkilis led the Sox with three hits and three RBI. Jason Varitek hit his second home run in as many games to finish with two RBI. Jacoby Ellsbury was effective in the leadoff spot going 2 for 6 with two runs and two stolen bases (40 on the season).

Matsuzaka went five innings and allowed two runs with five walks on top -- a typical Dice-K night. The O's left 22 on base. It's really remarkable what he's doing, but something is due to break. Either he's going to start giving up runs or he's going to stop issuing walks. One or the other. He can't go the rest of the season like this; it's just not possible.

Youk continues to look great. At this moment, it doesn't look like he's going to get tired and break down like last season.

I really like Justin Masterson in a relief role. I really do believe that he's going to prove to be one of the best options out of the 'pen down the stretch. If the Sox make the playoffs, there's no doubt in my mind he's going to get some time in some tough situations and show what he can do. If Manny Delcarmen can pitch like he's capable of, Masterson, Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon could be what this bullpen needs. I understand Manny and Oki are the culprites this season, but it could all change come crunch time.

Despite the walks, a good one. Let's sweep.

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Thank you, Jon Lester and Jason Bay.

The Red Sox got back in the win column with a 6-3 victory over Orioles. Lester went seven innings and allowed just one run. Bay provided the offense by hitting two home runs, knocking in four RBIs and finishing 3 for 5 with two runs.

All is right in Red Sox Nation.

Even though it was against the Orioles, this was a very important win because it was our ace matched up against thier ace. The Sox have struggled against some of the better pitchers in baseball, so touching up Jeremy Guthrie is nice.

Lester gave up four hits and one run, an Aubrey Huff dinger. Manny Delcarmen allowed two runs in relief, while Jonathan Papelbon finished the last 1.1 innings to earn the save.

A sweep of the O's would be very nice. After letting the Jays walk all over us, the Sox need to make up some ground on the Rays. I'm actually at the point where I think I'm starting to get nervous. Some may already be at that point and some may never get there, but I think I'm there. The Sox need to play their best ball because it doesn't look like the Rays are going to fall off the map now.

Speaking of those Rays, today they use six pitchers and still come out with a 6-4 win. That's not dominant baseball right there. Will that come back to bite them in the butt? Let's hope so.

Tomorrow it's Daisuke Matsuzaka facing off against Daniel Cabrera. Can you say, 'Walkapalooza'?

FIP is a metric by which pitchers are judged based on how they pitch. Luck, defense, etc. are intended to be eliminated by the use of this metric. It takes into account how well a pitcher strikes out hitters, controls walks, etc. It is roughly analogous to ERA, though a better measure of how a pitcher is throwing.

Sox Starters, Descending order by FIP:

Justin Masterson: 5.16 FIP v. 3.61 ERA

Tim Wakefield: 4.85 FIP v. 3.77 ERA

Bartolo Colon: 4.45 FIP v. 4.09 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 4.18 FIP v. 5.94 ERA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.18 FIP v. 3.04 ERA

Jon Lester: 3.57 FIP v. 3.14 ERA

Josh Beckett: 3.39 FIP v. 4.15 ERA

Comments:

Beckett and Buch have been unlucky. Beckett's 4.7 K/BB should give him a leg up on the competition, but he's been allowing more HRs than he should be (1.09/9 IP) and his BABIP has been a bit higher (.324) than average (approx. .290-.300). I feel like even Buch's FIP is a bit low. He's been unlucky, but he also hasn't been great. He has, however, been better in terms of K/BB (1.91) than lucky Daisuke (1.47). This reinforced my feeling that Daisuke has actually been the harder one to watch on the mound. His % of runners LOB is about 10 higher than the league-average, and that walk rate (5.4 per 9) is downright scary. That particular house of cards could come crashing down any day now.

Masterson has also been very lucky. He's got similar problems to Daisuke, in that his LOB% is probably unsustainable. His HR rate is high, his BABIP is low (.232), and his K/BB makes me want to vomit (1.62). However, he's definitely still young, figuring it out, and his ability to get GBs has helped him out of jams. (I put him in the starter column, as the great majority of his innings are in that role)

Few pitchers match their FIP exactly, and Colon and Lester are good examples of pitchers who have been close enough to their FIP to not be deemed flukes in some way. Lester's FIP indicates that he's been a high-quality starter this season. And what have our eyes and traditional statistics told us? The same thing. Colon has looked like a league-average starter who's was reliable for us when pitching. His FIP indicates the same thing. By just the starters, Colon's K/BB is second-best among his teammates. Lester is actually 9th among 43 qualified AL starters in FIP.

Wakefield is the breaker of all rules, and to try to pin him down based on his FIP is probably pretty foolish. There are no comparisons for him, really. I'd say he might be a bit lucky, but to assume that in reality he's a 4.85 run pitcher seems wrong as well.

Sox Relievers, Descending order by FIP:

Mike Timlin: 4.41 FIP v. 5.34 ERA

Javy Lopez: 4.25 FIP v. 2.51 ERA

Hideki Okajima: 4.01 FIP v. 2.66 ERA

David Aardsma: 3.44 FIP v. 2.75 ERA

Manny Delcarmen: 3.34 FIP v. 4.05 ERA

Jonathan Papelbon: 1.94 FIP v. 2.05 ERA

Comments:

Paps is awesome. His FIP is actually better than last season, despite seeming more human than ever in the last two years. His K/BB is a strong 8.14, and he's done a better job keeping the ball in the park. MDC, similarly, has improved on his FIP from last season (3.85) by also doing a better job keeping the ball in the park and improving his walk rate. 

Oki? Well, the feeling that he would be something between last season and his horrendous start to this one is probably correct. I don't know that he's ever going to get back to how good he was last season; he was phenomenal. His BABIP (.294) is about right/average, and it has produced a somewhat predictable 1.34 WHIP. Surprisingly enough, his LOB% is higher than last season, which should shock most who've seen him let inherited runner after inherited runner score in tough situations this year.

Javy kind of sucks. I don't know how else to put it. 1.33 K/BB and a probably unsustainable LOB% of his own. Timlin, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sucked as much as we might believe. To my own eyes, he's certainly pitched a lot better as of late, and could be more trustworthy than some (Lopez) in situations. Aardsma is kind of the enigma. His stunning ability to walk a lot of people made me believe his FIP would be higher than it is, but I suppose his second-best on the Sox K-rate (9.38/9 IP) has helped with that. He's also been very stingy with the longball, best on the Sox staff in that department. We'll see how it goes, but he's certainly worth keeping around for next season.

Jason Bay slides home on one of Coco Crisp's sacrifice flies. (via d.yimg.com)

Hey, what do you know? This actually looks like a ballcub.

The Sox completed a three-game sweep of the A's with an easy 5-2 victory Sunday afternoon. Daisuke Matsuzaka earned his 12th win of the season after working six innings and allowed just two runs, walked two and struck out eight. His pitch count was high, but a 37 minute rain delay also didn't help Matsuzaka heading back out for the eighth inning.

The Sox took the lead for good in the first inning. Dustin Pedroia doubled and Kevin Youkilis singled right after to put the Sox up, 1-0. Jed Lowrie tripled in the fourth to score Mike Lowell and Jason Bay. Coco Crisp hit two sacrifice flies in the ballgame to score the Sox's final two runs. Bay went 2 for 4 with two runs and David Ortiz walked twice and stole second. I repeat: stole second base.

Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen and Jonathan Papelbon combined for three innings, one hit, two walks, two strikeouts and no runs. Papelbon earned his 31st save of the season and dropped his ERA to 2.05.

Like I said yesterday, Lowrie is looking better and better each day. If he continues to play like this (7 RBI in the last three games), I'm not sure how he could sit on the bench when Julio Lugo gets back. Would the Sox be afraid to designate Lugo for assignment? I think it's a possibility. They might be able to trade him at some point in August.

OMG. WTF can I say here people?

Atrocious, plus a side of excruciatingly painful to watch.

Signs it's going to get better? None. And the only acquisition I'm really interested in, Damaso Marte, hasn't pitched in the AL in awhile, and could easily be cost-prohibitive. Out of 8 full-type seasons, his WHIP has only been above 1.266 twice, and he has struck out 483 hitters in 453 1/3 career innings. It's all but assured that we need to get better on an internal basis.

Masterson. I'm cautiously optimistic, if only because his sinker should make him reasonably effective in those IH situations that we've to this point only been able to use Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Mike Timlin, Javy Lopez, David Aardsma absolutely no one in. I'm concerned about his control and HR issues, however, which basically means he'll fit right in in our bullpen.

Delcarmen. All right buddy, I'm losing faith here. I've been one of your biggest defenders, I think, as others have clearly lost all thought of using him in close situations. He's simply been easier to hit this season. Last year he threw 44 innings and walked 17 while striking out 41. This season he's at 40 2/3 with 16 BB and 40 Ks. Hits? 28 last year, 37 this year.

Oki. Same issue, really, and this could've been predicted for both. Control in terms of walk rate and strikeout rate have not changed too much. 

Timlin. Am I serious? His last 5 1/3 of ridiculouslysmallsamplesize: 4 H, 1 BB, 3 Ks. I've given up on trying to figure Timlin out, but his ability to not be afraid to f'n throw strikes means I'm ready for him to try higher-leverage work again, if only because I'm ready for hits rather than walks/gift-wrapped hitters' counts to beat us in close games.

Paps. Pass. Good job buddy, even if you haven't been as crazy-dominant as the past two seasons.

Javy. Just not sure here. He had a good stretch to begin the season, but has come WAY back to Earth. Predictable, yes, and he probably doesn't need to see the kind of work he got earlier anymore. Surprisingly enough, he's looking more like a lefty specialist, with a .741 OPS against LHHs and an .814 OPS against RHHs. That .741 isn't that great, I suppose, but it means maybe we should only throw him against weak LHHs from now on. Doesn't seem that useful.

Chris Smith. 0.97 WHIP in Pawtucket this season. 45 Ks in 48 1/3. He might be a quad-A guy, certainly, but we'll never know until he gets an extended look. Seems like a guy (8 BB this season) who would make the other team beat him rather than beating himself. Refreshing?

Daniel Bard. Well. 82 Ks in 62 innings and a 0.94 WHIP. Next season, certainly, even if he doesn't make it up to help us this season.

Aardsma. Injured, and we'll see how that velocity is when he comes back. Walks too many. Walks too many. Walks too many. 

EDIT:

Conclusions. Manny D and Oki just have to become more deceptive and get into less hitters' counts. Timlin might need to see more late-inning work, if only because he'll throw strikes. Lopez would be good if he got on another run, but as of now should be mop-up and vs. LHH's only. Aardsma shows promise, less IP than MDC with great strikeout rates over his career. Some control (we could say this about a lot of people) and he'll be a rock. Hopefully Masterson can defy his BB and HR issues as a starter during his conversion to the pen. 

via www.fangraphs.com

Not a moment too soon.

Summary:

Wake pitches well for 7 innings.

8th inning for both Wake and MDC: Better not to re-live it.

Days like these make me wonder whether MDC will really live up to his potential.

Aardsma went on the DL today; Masterson up to officially try his hand at being a RP.

DP (3-4, 2B) and "Being" (1-3, 2B, BB) continue to not suck at that whole hitting thing.

Player of the Game:

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Comment of the Game:

"Wake blows the 72 mph fastball by Mathis" -soxaholic

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Can I admit I'm not exactly Paps up there when thinking about how the bullpen has been used lately? Our players love playing for Tito and some of that has to do with the confidence he shows in them in certain situations. 

Paps, for example, belongs to save situations and that's not going to change anytime soon, and it shouldn't. MDC is the RHP called upon most often in the 7th/8th in close games. Again. No problem. 

The issue, here, is some heralded RPs who need to switch roles with their, perhaps, less-heralded counterparts. 

Craig Hansen has been up-and-down since called up, looking better than MDC at times, and looking worse than Timlin at others. Yet Tito has shown confidence in Hansen, putting him in situations where the score is close and the Sox are deep into the game. The fact of the matter is, despite how good he was today (and he was, awesome). He needs some of what Joe Morgan might refer to as consistency before he's trusted as the third option out of the pen.

Hideki Okajima. I wish I had some confidence in him. But I just don't. I have to wonder why he was in the game late yesterday, rather than David Aardsma, but of course remembered that we used/wasted Aardsma in back-to-back losses. I don't know what Oki needs, but he needs to put in some impressive work in garbage time to earn our confidence to pitch him late in games. Until then.

Javy Lopez. I wouldn't be saying this last year. But, for now, Javy needs to be getting those high-leverage situations when Tito/Farrell want a lefty. Javy's been effective this year, for whatever reason, and we should keep riding that while it lasts. The fact that his total numbers indicate that he's making hitters, in general, look like Jason Varitek (.703 OPS against, v. .717 OPS) is as encouraging about Lopez as it is discouraging about our captain.

David Aardsma. Aardsma has earned a shot at some more important situations, especially given his performance this weekend, striking out the side in two straight games. A 1.30 WHIP and 36 Ks in 34+? Not lights-out, but certainly better than many of our other options.

In, short, get J-Lo and Aardsma out of these blowout games and near-losses, and let's start using a couple of our best relievers as they should be used.

Oh. And Mike Timlin needs to be moved from the 15-day DL to the foreverplease RL. Yes. I'm in the camp that believes he's pretty much entirely cooked. I know he proved us all wrong last season, but it just seems different.

I suppose some trades could be made to help our cause. Names that intrigue me:

Jon Rauch: 33 Ks and 35 baserunners in 36 2/3. Toiling away for the last-place Nationals.

Alan Embree: Looks like he's gotten his mojo back in Oakland. 31 Ks and a 1.24 WHIP in 30 2/3.

Damaso Marte: He's been excellent, in Pittsburgh,with 39 Ks in 36 1/3 and a 1.07 WHIP. Last I've seen is that Pittsburgh might hold on to him the rest of the year, but I don't know how much sense that makes for them.

Who'd be a fair return for these cats? I dunno. Throw down some ideas in the comments.

via www.fangraphs.com

Summary:

.993 OPS. David Ortiz J.D. Drew. He's been a monster, and while I acknowledge the point that he might be seeing better pitches ahead of Manny than he was ahead of 'Tek and others, anyone watching can tell he's locked in, and wouldn't be missing the one good pitch he'd get in the 6th or 7th spot the way he is right now. He absolutely cannot be dropped lower than 5th when Papi comes back. I know one of the two (Manuel or Papi) is very comfortable with the way they bat in the order, but I started to think tonight that Drew should be the #2, with Manny 3rd and Papi 4th and Lowell or Youks to follow. Then you don't have the three LHHs in a row, but still get Drew to the plate the secondmost times in a game. Who would have thought a year ago that we'd be working this hard to find more PAs for Drew.

None of that was a summary at all. Anyway. Jon Lester continued to improve as a pitcher, pounding the zone tonight. And the way you know he's convincing Tito/Theo? He had a bit of a rough stretch in the 6th (perhaps set up, as suggested in the thread, by too much down time in-between innings) and was still sent out for the 7th and finished the game strong. MDC came on in the 8th and looked...money, while Timlin finished the game with a solidly-pitched 1-2-3 9th. 

On offense? Sox had it goin. The first run scored on a anybody but Julio Lugo Julio Lugo RBI 1B. Then the Sox started the 5th inning with an Ells single, a Dustin "One-Pitch" Pedroia flyout, then a beautiful JD Drew 2B to CF. That set up an IBB to "Being" and finally a Mike Lowell over the monster grand slam. Youks and Drew would add a 2-run HR apiece to make the final score 9-2. (the 2 O's runs scoring in the aforementioned rough 6th for Jon Lester. Shout-out to Aubrey Huff and Oscar WHO? Salazar for having good offensive games for Baltimore)

Player of the Game:

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Ladies and gentlemen? Jon Lester.

Comment of the Game:

"Ells is on, c'mon Pedroia, take a pitch, I dare you, just take a pitch... -sydneysox

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Summary:

Well, it wasn't vintage Becks, no matter how much the numbers might tell us otherwise. There was some iffiness, and an injury-scare. He certainly did get the job done though, and I'm not going to say he didn't earn the win. He absolutely did. And the iffiness could be chalked up to the raininess, I suppose.

Following Becks was three strong innings of relief from MDC, Oki, and Hansen in that order. MDC, in particular, looked pretty strong, striking out the side in the 7th. We need one (ideally two) of those three to start looking like a lockdown setup man. 

Our new (hopefully he remains so) #3 hitter was the top performer on the night, 2-3, 2 R, BB, SB. This is what they envisioned from Drew, and to say that this'll be the norm from now on probably isn't fair. But the fact remains, he's a very talented hitter who works the count and gets on base at an excellent rate. He should be higher in the lineup with Papi out, so that "Being" and Lowell can knock him in, rather than standing on 1B while Lugo and Coco fail to do so. As far as Coco goes? I haven't seen a good angle replay of either of his SB attempts, so I couldn't hazard a guess as to whether anyone is right at all in that mess. 

Eric Hinske stealing 3B? 'Tek and Becks should be embarrassed. 

Player of the Game:

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Could be that Becks is that statistically better choice for this game, but Drew hit well in this one and deserves some recognition for his play of late. Is this like the NBA giving the MVP to Kobe rather than KG or Chris Paul? *Shrugs* Also, no. 

Rant-o-licious:

So Papi is out? So what? Or, I just want to weigh in. Like FJM does, twice. But honestly. If he's out for longer than a month, or for the rest of the season, we might have to explore outside options. I've seen many bandied about, but one has been conspicuously absent, probably because his GM is bluffing that he's not on the block. But why wouldn't he be? This player is: 1) Hitting well, 2) Might be too old to be part of the "next great X team", 3) Talented OF who can play all 3 spots while also being potent enough offensively to DH, 4) Patient at the plate, 5) Seems to have matured since his early years in the Majors. This is the kind of player, when you should be in somewhat of a rebuilding mode, that can bring you back a good return to help your team in the future. And who is our mystery guest?

Milton Bradley. Let the virtual-flogging begin. (I am, of course, aware of his ridiculous BABIP and some other issues that come along with him. I still think he'd be a better option (tradewise, that is) than many of the other names brought up thusfar.)

via www.fangraphs.com

Summary:

Let's get this out of the way first. Daisuke was not sharp. Walks. Hits. Runs. Only 2 Ks, but like 8,569 pitches to get through five innings. He gave way to David Aardsma, who was ultimately capable of getting six outs to bridge the gap to Oki/Paps Timlin/MDC despite being a student of the Matsuzaka-Lester Institute of First-Pitch Strikes. The Timlin half of tonight's original equation was crap. All there is to it. Didn't have it, and the Yankees just jumped all over him. It was looking grim, my friends. However, Javier Lopez shathebed was able to come in, get a double play ball as well as another groundout to escape the inning with the Sox only having given back one run. J-Lo retired Abreu in the 9th, then gave way to MDC, who had a bit of a Papelbon-vibe going on from the get-go. He got A-Rod to strikeout and Matsui to groundout to end the game.

Offense? Yeah, we got that too. 'Tek was the only Sox hitter not to reach base. Stolen bases from Coco (2), Tacoby, and DP. Both Tacoby and Youks knocked in two runs apiece, while Drew and "Being" each scored twice. ...boo-yah. It was the usual, I guess. Sox stringing together the walks and hits, with patience and good execution at the plate and on the basepaths (am I forgetting DP something?)

Player of the Game:

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Highest WPA? Most clutchiest grittiest gameriest performance? Both, my friends. It's J-Lo tonight.

Comment of the Game:

Speed can really make things happen. I never really grasped that idea, growing up with Wade Boggs' Red Sox. - tommy

Too true, tommy